Pakistan’s inflation rate is set to rise in November, as the recent border closure contributes to a sharp spike in food prices, according to a new report. This surge threatens to deepen the cost-of-living squeeze for millions of households already battling economic headwinds.
The border closure, which has disrupted cross-border trade and supply chains, has curtailed the import and transport of essential food items. As supply tightens, prices of staples like flour, cooking oil, vegetables, and pulses have risen sharply. The report warns that these hikes alone may drive the headline inflation rate for the month substantially higher than previous estimates.
For many Pakistani families, food already constitutes a major share of household expenditure. With food inflation rising fastest, poorer and middle-income households are likely to feel the pinch most acutely, cutting into savings and forcing tough choices over necessities.
Beyond individual households, rising food inflation has ripple effects across the economy. Higher grocery and food costs tend to erode consumer spending power, depress demand for non-essential goods, and increase poverty risk.
Analysts point out that inflationary pressure also complicates recovery prospects for businesses and may discourage investment, especially if wage growth fails to keep pace with rising costs.
The food inflation this month was driven largely by steep increases in several key items, including onions up 59%, chicken up 16%, meat up 15% and fresh vegetables up 12%. The report also highlighted a 0.79 percent rise in the housing, water, electricity, and gas segment, adding further pressure to household budgets.
| Category | Weight (%) | Nov-25 | Oct-25 | MoM Change (%) | Nov-24 YoY Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National CPI | 100.0 | 282.5 | 280.7 | 0.7 | 6.4 |
| Food | 34.6 | 300.2 | 298.6 | 0.5 | 6.4 |
| Alcohol & Tobacco | 1.0 | 399.7 | 398.1 | 0.4 | 4.5 |
| Clothing | 8.6 | 269.1 | 266.7 | 0.9 | 6.7 |
| Housing | 23.6 | 250.8 | 249.5 | 0.5 | 4.4 |
| Furnishing | 4.1 | 285.2 | 281.9 | 1.2 | 4.4 |
| Health | 2.8 | 283.6 | 281.4 | 0.8 | 8.0 |
| Transport | 5.9 | 320.8 | 319.8 | 0.3 | 6.3 |
| Communication | 2.2 | 136.2 | 135.6 | 0.5 | 1.0 |
| Recreation & Culture | 1.6 | 265.9 | 264.4 | 0.6 | -3.6 |
| Education | 3.8 | 225.4 | 223.6 | 0.8 | 9.8 |
| Restaurants & Hotels | 6.9 | 296.3 | 293.7 | 0.9 | 5.9 |
| Misc. | 4.9 | 356.1 | 352.8 | 0.9 | 18.4 |
Inflation has remained one of Pakistan’s most stubborn economic problems. The Consumer Price Index surged to an all-time high of 38 percent in May 2023, marking one of the worst spikes in the country’s history. After that peak, inflation eased considerably, sliding into single digits by September 2024 at 6.9 percent and eventually hitting a low of 0.3 percent in April 2025.
That period of relief, however, has now reversed. The latest data indicates that inflation is picking up again, signalling a renewed rise in living costs and raising concerns about the months ahead.
The government may need to consider measures such as subsidies, price controls on key staples, or easing trade restrictions to stabilize food supply. Without intervention, social and economic strain could intensify, especially in vulnerable regions.
In October 2025, Pakistan’s headline inflation clocked in at 6.2% on a year-on-year (YoY) basis. This was the highest in 11 months.
On Wednesday, Jameel Ahmad, Governor of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), said that inflation has not only aligned with the central bank’s forecasts but is also “expected to remain within the 5–7% target band over the medium term”.