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Morgan Stanley has forecasted that gold prices could climb to $4,500 per ounce by mid-2026. The bank cited strong physical demand from exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and central banks as key drivers. It added that ongoing economic uncertainty continues to support the metal’s rally.
The bank noted that gold’s recent surge pushed it into “overbought” territory based on the Relative Strength Index (RSI). However, the latest correction brought prices to a healthier level, cleaning up positioning.
Steady Demand and Key Risks
Morgan Stanley expects continued buying of gold-backed ETFs as interest rates decline. Central banks are also likely to keep purchasing, though at a slower pace, while jewellery demand should stabilise.
However, the bank warned of downside risks. Potential price volatility could shift investors toward other asset classes, and central bank decisions to cut reserves may add pressure.
Gold prices have surged over 54% this year, reaching multiple record highs in 2025. The metal hit a peak of $4,381.21 per ounce on October 20 before retreating by more than 8%. The rally was fueled by geopolitical tensions, rate-cut expectations, and strong ETF inflows.
Banks Revise Gold Outlooks Higher
Morgan Stanley joins several global banks that see higher prices ahead. According to Reuters data:
- Bank of America raised its 2026 gold outlook to $5,000 per ounce.
- JP Morgan expects prices to average $5,055/oz by Q4 2026.
- Societe Generale projects $5,000 by the end of 2026.
- Goldman Sachs targets $4,900 by December 2026.
With steady central bank buying and easing rates, the world’s top lenders remain bullish on gold’s long-term trajectory.
