Pakistan’s hopes of reaching the ongoing T20 World Cup 2026 semi-finals are now extremely fragile after New Zealand defeated Sri Lanka by 61 runs in the Super Eight stage encounter.
The New Zealand win lifted their points tally to three and boosted their net run rate to 3.050, while the Men in Green remain behind with a negative net run rate of minus 0.461.
For Pakistan to qualify, England must first beat New Zealand, and Pakistan will need a large-margin victory over Sri Lanka to surpass the projected net run rate of the Kiwis.
How Net Run Rate Is Calculated
- Net Run Rate (NRR) = Batting Run Rate – Bowling Run Rate
- Batting Run Rate = Total Runs Scored ÷ Overs Faced
- Bowling Run Rate = Total Runs Conceded ÷ Overs Bowled
Scenario One: Pakistan Bat First Against Sri Lanka
Assuming Pakistan bats first and scores 180 runs, the key question becomes: what is the maximum total Sri Lanka can score while still allowing the Men in Green to remain ahead on net run rate?
The formula for net run rate is calculated as the batting run rate minus the bowling run rate, with batting run rate equal to total runs scored divided by overs faced in the match.
Solving the equation for Pakistan’s net run rate to exceed the projected 1.275 of New Zealand, the Green Shirts can allow Sri Lanka to score no more than 120 runs to qualify.
-
Pakistan total = 180, Sri Lanka maximum = 120
-
NRR = (344 ÷ 40) – ((X+166) ÷ 39.167) ≥ 1.276
Scenario Two: Sri Lanka Bat First Against Pakistan
If Sri Lanka bats first and posts a total of 180 runs, Pakistan must chase the target efficiently, with required overs calculated to ensure a net run rate above New Zealand’s projected figure.
Using the formula, Pakistan’s net run rate equals the batting run rate minus the bowling run rate, with the required overs calculated from the equation to achieve at least a 1.276 net run rate.
Calculations show Pakistan must complete the chase in no more than 14.1 overs, slightly less than 14.2 overs, to secure a net run rate above New Zealand and maintain semi-final contention.
-
Sri Lanka total = 180, Pakistan chase overs ≤ 14.128
-
NRR = (Runs ÷ Overs) – (180 ÷ 20) ≥ 1.275
Impact of England vs New Zealand Result
All these scenarios assume England beats New Zealand narrowly, for example 180 to 170, limiting New Zealand’s net run rate adjustment and forcing Pakistan to chase aggressively or restrict Sri Lanka significantly.
Should England defeat New Zealand by a larger margin, Pakistan’s task would become easier, as New Zealand’s net run rate would decrease, giving Pakistan more leeway to qualify for the semi-finals.
As it stands, Pakistan faces an uphill challenge, requiring both flawless batting and disciplined bowling to achieve the extreme margins necessary for net run rate superiority over New Zealand.
