Bitcoin (BTC) has gained nearly 10% so far in July, making it the cryptocurrency’s strongest July performance in four years. However, market analysts remain cautious, warning that historical trends could signal a return of bearish momentum as early as August.
According to market data from CoinGlass, Bitcoin has climbed approximately 9.5% during the first half of July, marking its best monthly performance for the period since 2022.
Despite the rally, analysts note that Bitcoin followed a similar pattern during the 2022 bear market, when it surged nearly 17% in July before falling 14% in August and declining further in September.
Crypto trader Daan Crypto Trades said Bitcoin’s performance remains in line with its historical average for July but cautioned that the third quarter has traditionally been the weakest period for the cryptocurrency due to lower trading volumes and reduced market liquidity during the summer months.
Meanwhile, market analyst Rekt Capital believes Bitcoin’s price action is closely mirroring previous bear-market cycles. He expects the current relief rally to continue through the second half of July before a potential correction in August, followed by a broader market bottom later in the year.
Several analysts are targeting $70,000 as Bitcoin’s next major resistance level if the current rally continues. Others see a trading range between $67,000 and $73,000 before bearish pressure potentially returns.
Market participants also expect increased volatility during the fourth quarter, when Bitcoin has historically experienced stronger price movements.
While some on-chain indicators are beginning to signal a possible long-term market bottom, analysts say overall demand has only partially recovered, leaving uncertainty over Bitcoin’s medium-term direction.
