Bitcoin Faces Critical Test Near $82,800 as Year-End Test Looms

Bitcoin is under renewed pressure, sliding nearly 4% in the past 24 hours and close to 10% over the last month, as selling intensifies across the crypto market. With the year end approaching, analysts say Bitcoin’s monthly close near a crucial long-term level could decide whether prices stabilize or slip into deeper weakness.

Bitcoin is currently trading close to its 2 Year Simple Moving Average, positioned around $82,800. This level is widely viewed as one of Bitcoin’s most important long-term cycle indicators. Unlike short term supports, the 2 year SMA is assessed on a monthly closing basis, making the December close especially significant for market structure.

Historically, monthly closes below this level have marked prolonged bearish phases. In mid-2022, when Bitcoin slipped below the same indicator, prices went on to fall more than 50% before recovering, highlighting why this zone is now being closely watched.

Beyond technical signals, on-chain data points to rising stress in the market. Long-term holders, wallets holding Bitcoin for more than 155 days, have sharply increased selling throughout December. Net outflows from this group surged from around 116,000 BTC earlier in the month to nearly 269,000 BTC by mid December, reflecting a significant jump in distribution.

Analysts note that long-term investors typically sell only during periods of heightened risk or strong conviction, adding extra pressure near key support levels.

If Bitcoin fails to hold the $82,800 to $81,100 region into the December monthly close, analysts warn that downside risks could accelerate, with $73,300 emerging as the next major support. On the upside, a move above $88,200 would help ease immediate pressure, while a sustained push past $94,500 is needed to restore bullish momentum.

As December draws to a close, Bitcoin remains trapped between critical long term support and increasing selling pressure. The monthly candle could serve as a decisive signal for how Bitcoin enters the new year.