Bitcoin is heading into a volatile week as US midterm elections, employment data, and major technology company earnings are expected to influence financial markets.
Bitcoin (BTC) remained above its 100-day moving average on Monday, November 2, ahead of Tuesday’s US midterm elections. The cryptocurrency also managed to hold key technical support levels despite recording its weakest October since 2014.
US Midterm Elections Could Influence Bitcoin
The US midterm elections are expected to play an important role in market sentiment. Prediction market platform Kalshi placed the probability of Democrats winning control of the House of Representatives at 93.6% ahead of Tuesday’s vote.
Bitcoin has historically recorded losses during the fourth quarter of midterm election years. It declined 17.3% in 2014, 43.5% in 2018, and 14.8% in 2022.
Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen suggested that midterm-year market declines could create buying opportunities for investors.
US Jobs Data and Tech Earnings in Focus
Investors are also monitoring upcoming US economic reports, particularly October’s nonfarm payrolls data scheduled for Friday. Economists expect the US economy to add 65,000 jobs, compared with 29,000 in September.
The Federal Reserve’s interest rate outlook is another major factor. Market expectations currently indicate a 67% to 75% probability of a 0.25 percentage-point interest rate increase in December.
Meanwhile, major technology companies, including Apple and Palantir, are scheduled to report earnings. Their results could influence broader market sentiment, particularly following last week’s technology stock sell-off.
Bitcoin Holds Key Technical Support
Bitcoin closed October with a 7.3% decline but remained above its 100-day simple moving average, which stood at $76,548.
The cryptocurrency also reclaimed its 100-week exponential moving average at $77,759 ahead of the monthly close.
Analyst Rekt Capital compared Bitcoin’s current weekly chart with its 2023 recovery pattern, highlighting similarities with an inverse head-and-shoulders formation.
He is monitoring whether Bitcoin experiences another temporary decline below its current support level before attempting a stronger recovery.
For now, traders are watching the $76,300 support area alongside US economic developments and election results to assess Bitcoin’s next major price movement.
