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Bitcoin appears to be slipping into its weakest phase of the current market cycle, as institutional buying slows and several major indicators point to deeper downside pressure. Fresh analysis from CryptoQuant suggests that the digital asset is now showing its most bearish readings since the bull run began in January 2023.
CryptoQuant’s latest weekly report, shared with Cointelegraph, highlights a sharp drop in the firm’s Bull Score Index, which has fallen to 20 out of 100. The price of Bitcoin, now at $86,488, sits well below the 365-day moving average of $102,000, a level that previously confirmed the beginning of the 2022 bear market. This decline has raised concerns that the broader cycle may be nearing its end.
Institutional demand, once a major engine for Bitcoin’s rally, is also slowing. Bitcoin treasury firms have reduced their purchases, including Michael Saylor’s Strategy. Although Strategy recently bought 8,178 BTC worth $835 million, the acquisition is still smaller than several of its earlier, more aggressive buys.
CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno noted on X that many treasury companies have paused purchases, and some have trimmed their holdings. He pointed to firms like Metaplanet, which last bought Bitcoin in September.
ETFs are facing similar pressure. So far this year, inflows have reached $27.4 billion, down about 30 percent from the $41.7 billion recorded in 2024, according to CoinShares. This softer demand has made the market more vulnerable as it searches for new catalysts.
In previous years, major events fueled Bitcoin’s rise. Donald Trump’s 2024 election victory pushed the token past $100,000, while the launch of several Bitcoin treasury firms lifted prices above $120,000 in August 2025. CryptoQuant now argues that similar drivers are absent. The firm said the possibility of a US government strategic Bitcoin reserve seems unlikely next year, while further interest-rate cuts appear already priced in.
This weakening momentum aligns with the familiar four-year cycle that shaped earlier market phases from 2014 to 2017 and 2018 to 2021. By that measure, CryptoQuant believes the current cycle from 2022 to 2025 is approaching its final stage.
The analysts stressed that a sudden collapse is not guaranteed. Bitcoin has dropped about 28 percent so far and is moving into a support zone between $90,000 and $92,000. Even in bear phases, prices can rebound sharply. CryptoQuant added that Bitcoin could still rally 40 to 50 percent over a few months. However, the 365-day moving average is now a firm resistance level at $102,600, making any recovery more difficult.
Bitcoin briefly slipped under $90,000 on Wednesday, touching $88,400, its lowest level since April 2025, based on Coinbase data. The price later recovered slightly and was trading near $91,650 at the time of writing.
