On December 5, 2025, Bitcoin extended its bearish trend, slipping below $90,000 and signaling that December may reinforce a red end to the year. Fresh on chain data suggests that $82,000 is now the single most important level that could determine Bitcoin’s next major move, with analysts warning of a potential sharp decline if this support fails.
As of today, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $89,310, marking a 3% drop in 24 hours. The continued pressure reflects weakening sentiment and fears of deeper downside if key cost-basis levels break.
Market analyst explained that $82,000 is the convergence point of two major market cost bases. This means both institutional buyers and active market participants hold BTC near this average price.
Analyst noted,
“Whatever happens around $82,000 could make or break Bitcoin’s trajectory.”
According to the analyst, Bitcoin spot ETFs currently one of the strongest sources of BTC demand hold an average purchase price close to $82,000. A drop below this level would push ETFs into loss, historically triggering renewed selling.
The True Market Mean, which tracks the cost basis of active BTC investors, also places their average purchase price at roughly $82,000. This overlap amplifies the level’s significance, as both short term and institutional holders would be underwater if Bitcoin falls further.
This combination strengthens $82,000 as the line between stability and renewed bearish pressure.
If Bitcoin fails to hold this support, selling pressure is expected to escalate as investors attempt to reduce losses. Historically, whenever BTC falls below the active participant cost basis, it tends to drop further toward the Realized Price.
Analyst highlighted that the current Realized Price is near $56,000, suggesting the possibility of a deep retracement. A move from $82,000 to $56,000 would reflect an almost 40% decline from current levels.
With Bitcoin trading under $90,000 and investors watching $82,000 closely, market momentum remains fragile. A hold above this region could spark recovery later in the month, while a breakdown may push BTC into its sharpest correction of the year.