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According to the latest World Bank outlook, global commodity prices are set to decline to their lowest point in six years by 2026, marking the fourth consecutive annual drop.
The report projects that global commodity prices will fall by seven percent in both 2025 and 2026 due to sluggish economic activity worldwide, an expanding oil surplus and ongoing policy instability.
The decline in energy costs is helping ease inflation across many countries, while lower wheat and rice prices have improved food affordability in several developing regions. Despite the downward trend, prices remain elevated compared to the pre-pandemic period, with forecasts indicating that rates in 2025 and 2026 will still be 23 percent and 14 percent higher, respectively, than in 2019.
The oil surplus has grown sharply in 2025 and is expected to rise even further next year, reaching a level 65 percent above the most recent peak recorded in 2020. Demand for oil is weakening as electric and hybrid vehicle adoption increases, while consumption in China shows little momentum.
Brent crude is projected to slide from an average of 68 dollars in 2025 to 60 dollars in 2026, the lowest level in five years. Overall energy prices are forecast to drop 12 percent in 2025 and another 10 percent in 2026.
Food Prices Continue to Ease as Global Supply Conditions Improve
Food prices are also on a downward path, with expected decreases of 6.1 percent in 2025 and 0.3 percent in 2026. Soybean prices are falling this year due to record output and trade tensions but are anticipated to stabilize in the years ahead. Coffee and cocoa markets are also expected to cool in 2026 as supply improves.
In contrast, fertilizer prices are predicted to jump 21 percent in 2025 because of higher input costs and trade limitations before easing by five percent in 2026, a trend that could squeeze farmers’ earnings and raise concerns about future crop productivity.
Precious metals have surged to unprecedented levels in 2025, supported by demand for safe assets and persistent central bank buying. Gold prices are expected to climb 42 percent in 2025 and another five percent next year, nearly doubling their 2015 to 2019 average. Silver is also forecast to hit a record annual average in 2025, rising 34 percent and climbing another eight percent in 2026.
The World Bank cautioned that global commodity prices could fall more sharply if economic growth remains weak amid sustained trade friction and policy inconsistency. Higher-than-expected oil production from OPEC members could further widen the surplus and push energy prices down, while rising electric vehicle sales through 2030 may place additional pressure on oil demand.
