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Oil price outlook from Goldman Sachs predicts Brent crude will fall into the low $55 range in 2026. The bank projects a global surplus of about 1.8 million barrels per day by late next year. Lower prices will reduce Pakistan’s fuel import bill and relieve pressure on the rupee and on domestic inflation.
Global supply is growing faster than demand. The International Energy Agency has forecast a supply increase to nearly 2.1 million barrels per day in the current year and a 0.7-million-barrel-a-day growth in demand. Fears of tight oil supply have helped reduce bullish oil positions to a multi year low. That repositioning has contributed to a general moving of market sentiment to the downside
Despite the medium term outlook prices have risen recently. Brent traded near $67 per barrel and WTI near $63 this week. Short term moves reflect geopolitical events and trade policy. The new U S tariffs on Indian imports could change flows of Russian oil and tighten the market, driving prices up instead of down.
China’s demand recovery is improving imports and that trend will affect global balances. If China continues to import more oil the surplus will shrink. Still under current forecasts the Oil Price Outlook points to lower average prices in 2026 compared with 2025.
For Pakistan the outlook is positive. Lower oil prices will cut the country’s import cost for petrol and diesel. The finance ministry will have fiscal space to manage subsidies and to shore up foreign exchange reserves. Energy dependent sectors and households will see relief in transport and power costs.
Oil price outlook thus foreshadows a moment of policy makers to transform the cheaper fuel into obvious economical relief.
The market is sensitive to supply shocks and policy decisions and so authorities should monitor prices keenly and take actions to stabilise the economy.
