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After hitting a record monthly close of $115,644 in July, Bitcoin has retraced sharply: falling beneath $115,200 amid fresh U.S. tariff jitters and profit-taking.
The broader crypto market wiped out roughly 7%, with BTC dropping over 3% to around $115,000–$116,000, while Ethereum and Solana also ceded ground.
Market Overview: Consolidation or Calm Before the Storm?
Despite multiple failed attempts to sustain a break above $118,000, Bitcoin remains range‑bound between $115K–$119K. Over the past week, its price oscillated between $117,000 and $119,000, with on‑chain data showing steady accumulation and robust ETF inflows supporting sentiment.
A consensus AI-based forecast pegs today’s average BTC price around $119,833, with models ranging between $117,500 and $121,500, signaling mild upward bias.
Technical and Macro Outlook: Watching Key Zones
Momentum indicators suggest a pivotal test ahead: resistance at $120,000–$122,000 sits between Bitcoin and its next rally. A breakout here could unlock a climb toward $125K or higher, driven by renewed ETF inflows and global liquidity tailwinds.
But macro risks remain. The U.S. has introduced new tariffs, triggering market-wide selloffs. Bitcoin’s dip below $115K reflects investor caution amid geopolitical uncertainty. Analysts warn that continued tariff-driven volatility may briefly stall the rally.
At A Glance
- Price briefly dipped below $115K
- July Close Record monthly close at $115,644
- AI Forecast Avg. target $119,833; range $117.5K–$121.5K
- Breakout Zone $120K–$122K key; resistance strong
Institutional Momentum and Forecasts
Institutional belief in Bitcoin’s long-term upside remains strong, and we see how companies are adjusting accordingly. Syz Capital is reopening a crypto fund targeting over $200 million in Bitcoin, while Cantor Fitzgerald and other analysts forecast potential BTC valuations of $150K–$200K by 2025’s end. Some even see Bitcoin eventually reaching $1 million under a strategic reserve scenario.
If BTC holds above $115K and rebounds past $120K, a breakout could be imminent. But failure to break resistance may extend the range-bound phase, with support levels at $115K, and potential retracements toward $112K or $110K.
Bitcoin remains trapped in a high-stakes tug-of-war at $115K–$120K, with persistence above $120K potentially signaling an aggressive breakout.
However, macro headwinds including U.S. tariffs could delay more dramatic gains. Watch ETF flows, on-chain demand, and technical breakouts closely in the coming days.
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