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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected Pakistan’s economic growth rate at 3.6 percent for the ongoing fiscal year, even as the financial impact of the recent floods remains unaccounted for. The forecast comes alongside projections of higher inflation and a widening current account deficit.
Following a two-week review of Pakistan’s economy, the IMF’s latest estimate surpasses the World Bank’s projection of 2.6 percent GDP growth and 7.2 percent inflation, released earlier this month. The World Bank’s figures were based on preliminary assessments of flood-related damages.
In its World Economic Outlook (October 2025) report, unveiled during the IMF and World Bank annual meetings, the Fund forecast global economic growth to decline from 3.3 percent in 2024 to 3.2 percent in 2025 and 3.1 percent in 2026. Although slightly improved from July estimates, these figures remain 0.2 percentage point below last year’s October forecast, reflecting shifts in global trade trends. “On an end-of-year basis, global growth is projected to slow down from 3.6 percent in 2024 to 2.6 percent in 2025,” the report noted.
The IMF expects Pakistan’s CPI-based average inflation to rise to 6 percent this fiscal year, up from 4.5 percent a year ago. Meanwhile, the current account balance is projected to swing from a 0.5 percent surplus to a 0.4 percent deficit in the coming year. The Fund emphasized that its outlook for Pakistan’s economic growth remains tentative, as the final assessment of the 2025 flood damage is still underway.
