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Bitcoin is trading at $109,651.80*, lingering just above its recent four-week low. On-chain data reveals that long-term holders have realized over 3.4 million BTC in profits, a level that has historically marked late-cycle distribution phases. Experts also predict that smart money may be securing gains before a potential correction, leaving the market vulnerable to further pullbacks.
This wave of profit-taking, paired with a noticeable slowdown in ETF inflows and weaker institutional demand, indicates the market could be entering a consolidation or corrective phase unless new buying momentum steps in to stabilize prices.
Bitcoin Faces Its Biggest Test Near $109K
Spot Bitcoin ETFs are clearly losing steam. Net inflows have seen a sharp drop, falling from over $2.03 billion to just $931.4 million within a week, showing that big players are cooling off on aggressive accumulation. Some funds even recorded net outflows, a sign that institutions may be trimming exposure due to macroeconomic uncertainty and upcoming U.S. economic data.
Analysts also highlight bearish structural shifts. Composite market indices are slipping below critical thresholds, with bears taking control of short-term momentum indicators. Price is now hovering near the lower bands of the 21-day Donchian Channel, signaling a heightened risk of breakdown if buyers fail to step in.
If momentum does not recover, Bitcoin could soon retest support levels around $108,700, a key floor in recent sessions. A failure to hold this level could unleash intense selling pressure, potentially dragging prices into the $107,000 to $107,500 range where cascading liquidations may accelerate the drop.
Even the derivatives market is flashing warning signals. While futures and options activity has helped absorb volatility so far, demand is fading and profit-taking is strong. This combination is pressuring sentiment, with traders turning increasingly cautious about opening new leveraged positions.
Profit-Taking Hits Fever Pitch As Holders Face Stress
Realized profit levels are exceptionally high this cycle. Long-term holders have already cashed out gains on more than 3.27 million BTC, placing current profit-taking nearly in line with prior bull market peaks. Such a rush to realize profits often marks a cooling phase in market momentum.
The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), a widely followed metric, is sitting near 1.01, meaning many coins are being sold at breakeven or even slight losses. Selling into losses can be a sign of capitulation, suggesting that retail participants are feeling the heat.
Interestingly, not every investor is selling. Older wallet cohorts holding Bitcoin for 5 to 10 years are redistributing coins into longer-term holding brackets. This indicates a quiet transfer of supply to holders who are less likely to sell, a move that may strengthen future price floors.
Some seasoned investors are even taking advantage of the dip. Reports suggest these buyers are quietly accumulating more Bitcoin during the weakness, using this as a prime opportunity to load up while the market shakes out weaker hands.
Analysts Split Between $109K Doom And Boom
The bearish camp warns the pain may not be over yet. Crypto analyst Markus Thielen has cautioned that a drop toward $107,500 could trigger another wave of liquidations. Some analysts even warn of a possible slide toward $90,000 if ETF flows continue to dry up and macro pressure remains.
Optimists, however, see a potential turnaround in Q4. They expect easing macro conditions and renewed ETF inflows to spark a rebound. Bitcoin bull Michael Saylor has gone on record predicting new all-time highs by the end of 2025, citing growing corporate adoption as a key driver.
Others believe Bitcoin is locked in a $110K to $116K range, creating a tense battleground between profit-takers and patient buyers. A breakout in either direction could set the tone for the rest of the year and potentially decide Bitcoin’s next major trend.
The Big Picture: A Critical Moment For Bitcoin at $109K
Bitcoin’s current price near $109,651.80* leaves the market at a crucial turning point. Heavy profit-taking is draining liquidity, while slowing ETF inflows and weak institutional demand are weighing on buyers.
If support cracks, a sharper correction may follow. But if fresh buying momentum arrives, Bitcoin could mount a strong comeback heading into Q4, keeping the bull narrative alive. Fortunately for Pakistani investors, TechJuice provides a direct BTC to PKR conversion rate so they can keep at the forefront of price fluctuations.
* at the time of writing this article
