3 min read
Bitcoin’s long-dismissed quantum computing threat is back in focus, as advances in quantum research force investors, developers, and institutions to confront a future risk that may no longer be purely theoretical.
At the center of the concern is Bitcoin’s reliance on cryptographic algorithms that secure wallets and validate transactions. These systems are considered unbreakable by today’s classical computers, but quantum machines operate on entirely different principles. If sufficiently powerful quantum computers become viable, they could theoretically derive private keys from public ones, allowing attackers to forge transactions and move funds without authorization.
Bitcoin’s blockchain operates in a completely transparent manner, allowing anyone to see all transactions. However, ownership and the integrity of these transactions are safeguarded by cryptographic signatures and hashes.
Quantum computers cannot usually tap into any hidden data because there simply is not any to find. That said, there’s still a potential risk associated with cryptographic proofs, also known as signatures. For hash-based addresses, these proofs enable the spending of coins once a public key is made visible on the blockchain.
The renewed scrutiny follows growing confidence that quantum hardware is advancing faster than expected. While current quantum systems are far too limited to threaten Bitcoin, researchers agree that a future system with millions of stable, error-corrected qubits could run algorithms capable of undermining elliptic curve cryptography. That same cryptography secures not just Bitcoin, but large portions of global digital infrastructure.
Some institutional voices are already reacting. U.S. crypto exchange Coinbase has formed an advisory board including crypto and quantum experts to assess risks and outline migration paths to post-quantum-secure signatures. Crypto exchanges and custodians are also quietly evaluating their exposure, with advisory boards now including quantum computing specialists.
In mid-January, Christopher Wood, who heads global equity strategy at the multi-billion dollar investment bank Jefferies, made headlines by pulling a 10% Bitcoin allocation from his well-known “Greed & Fear” model portfolio, essentially wiping out the entire BTC stake. He expressed concerns that advancements in quantum computing could pose a serious threat to Bitcoin’s security in the long run.
At the same time, most experts stress that this is not an imminent danger. Estimates suggest Bitcoin remains safe for at least another decade, possibly longer. The real question is not whether quantum computers will break today’s cryptography tomorrow, but whether the crypto ecosystem will adapt in time.
Global standards bodies have begun approving quantum-resistant algorithms, and several experimental blockchains already use them. The challenge for Bitcoin is scale. Any cryptographic transition would require overwhelming consensus, coordinated software upgrades, and careful handling of older wallets that may never migrate. Bitcoin’s defenders argue that its open-source nature is an advantage. If the threat becomes real, the network can evolve. Critics counter that governance friction and dormant wallets could leave vast amounts of BTC permanently exposed.
For now, quantum computing remains a future storm on the horizon. But unlike past scares, this one is no longer dismissed outright. As Cais Manai, CPO and co-founder of TEN Protocol, told media:
“Not this cycle. Probably not this decade. But well within the investment horizon of anyone calling Bitcoin ‘digital gold.’”
As quantum research accelerates, Bitcoin’s long-term security may depend less on ideology and more on how quickly cryptography evolves.
