Bitcoin’s slide below $95,000 has rattled the crypto market, but JPMorgan believes the downturn is reaching its limit. After a sharp liquidation pushed Bitcoin to its lowest point in six months, the bank now sees signs of a rebound.
Its analysts argue that Bitcoin is nearing a level where core fundamentals begin to stabilize prices, and they expect the cryptocurrency to make a serious run at gold’s position next year. Gold currently holds a massive $28.3 trillion market cap, creating a wide valuation gap that Bitcoin may attempt to close.
JPMorgan’s analysis, reported by Forbes, points to $94,000 as Bitcoin’s floor. The research team, led by Managing Director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, says this level aligns with the rising cost of production. Mining one bitcoin has become more expensive due to greater network difficulty, lifting the cost from $92,000 to $94,000 in recent months. Miners usually counter tougher conditions by boosting hash power, but that move also raises the marginal cost for each new bitcoin.
This dynamic has long acted as a stabilizing point during major sell-offs. JPMorgan states that the current ratio between spot price and production cost sits at 1:0. That level leaves miners with almost no operating margin, making it harder for them to keep selling below costs without facing serious pressure. Because of this, the analysts believe that $94,000 is a natural stopping point for the decline. Their conclusion follows Bitcoin’s recent drop below $100,000, where it briefly touched the $94,000 mark.
Despite the recent slump, the bank expects a massive turnaround within the next year. JPMorgan forecasts that Bitcoin could rise to $170,000 in 6 to 12 months. The team bases this call on the changing volatility relationship between Bitcoin and gold. The Bitcoin-to-gold volatility ratio has now slipped below 2.0, which suggests Bitcoin carries about 1.85 times more risk than gold. At this level, the analysts say Bitcoin appears undervalued against its traditional counterpart.
Gold’s market cap, which stands above $28 trillion, has grown faster than Bitcoin’s over the past months. This widening difference creates room for Bitcoin to climb. To close the gap, Bitcoin’s valuation would need a boost of roughly 60 to 70 percent. That increase would place BTC near the bank’s theoretical target of $170,000.
Other industry voices share similar expectations. MicroStrategy co-founder Michael Saylor recently predicted that Bitcoin could surpass gold by 2035. Binance’s former CEO Changpeng Zhao has also said Bitcoin will eventually overtake gold’s market cap, though he offered no timeline.
JPMorgan’s outlook arrives at a moment of heightened uncertainty, yet the firm argues that Bitcoin’s fundamentals remain intact. If its cost-based model holds, the recent slide may be ending, setting the stage for Bitcoin’s next major move.