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Elon Musk’s Starlink is facing increasing competition in the satellite internet market, with China emerging as a formidable challenger. The billionaire’s low-Earth orbit (LEO) satellite network, which has dominated the sector since 2020, is now under pressure from Chinese state-backed projects and Jeff Bezos’s Project Kuiper.
After announcing discussions with more than 30 nations, Shanghai-based SpaceSail inked an agreement to join the Brazilian market in November. Work in Kazakhstan commenced two months later, as reported by the Kazakh embassy in Beijing.
According to a Brazilian official who spoke on condition of anonymity in order to freely discuss ongoing conversations, Brasília is apparently in talks with Bezos’s Project Kuiper internet service and Canada’s Telesat (TSAT.TO). These discussions are now making headlines for the first time.
Starlink’s Current Dominance in LEO Satellites
When compared to its rivals, Starlink has launched more satellites into low-Earth orbit (LEO) since 2020. LEO is defined as an altitude of less than 2,000 km. Extremely low-orbiting satellites transport data very effectively, allowing for the provision of high-speed internet to faraway places, ships at sea, and fighting armies.
China is worried about Musk’s space dominance and is putting a lot of money into competing companies and military research into instruments to monitor satellite constellations, according to unpublished Chinese company documents and academic articles.
Analysys Mason, a technology firm, analyzed data from astronomer Jonathan McDowell and found that China launched a record 263 LEO satellites last year.
The Geopolitical Implications
Although the Brazilian government has feuded with Musk over politics and business, it welcomes the arrival of Starlink’s competitors because it wants high-speed internet for remote regions.
Reuters asked SpaceSail about its expansion ambitions, but the company chose not to comment. Last year, a newspaper run by China’s telecoms regulator commended it for being “capable of transcending national boundaries, penetrating sovereignty, and unconditionally covering the whole world… a strategic capability that our country must master.”
No reaction was provided by Kuiper, Telesat, Starlink, or the Brazilian minister of communications.
China’s Satellite Ambitions: SpaceSail and Qianfan
The Shanghai city government controls SpaceSail, and few of Musk’s foreign competitors share its aim. It has stated its intention to launch 648 low-Earth orbit (LEO) satellites this year and as many as 15,000 by 2030. McDowell estimates that Starlink presently operates around 7,000 satellites, and the company has set a goal of running 42,000 by the end of this decade.
An ambitious constellation called Qianfan, or “Thousand Sails,” will be assembled from SpaceSail’s launches. This will be China’s initial push into international satellite internet. Beijing is investing in rockets that can carry many satellites and plans to launch 43,000 LEO spacecraft in the future decades. They are also developing three more constellations.
“The endgame is to occupy as many orbital slots as possible,” stated Chaitanya Giri, a space technology researcher from India’s Observer Research Foundation.
Western lawmakers are worried that China’s internet censorship system could be expanded as a result of the country’s haste to occupy more of Earth’s lower orbit.
According to a document published in February by researchers at the American Foreign Policy Council think-tank, Washington should work more closely with countries in the Global South in order to “seriously contest China’s growing foray into digital dominance.”
In addition, the researchers emphasized that Qianfan is an integral aspect of the space component of China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Critics have claimed that Chinese President Xi Jinping’s $1 trillion global infrastructure development plan is just an instrument to increase Beijing’s geopolitical power.
When asked for comments, China’s commerce ministry and telecoms regulator did not reply. In response to a question from Reuters, China’s foreign ministry stated that although Beijing does not have detailed knowledge about SpaceSail or the outward expansion of Chinese LEO satellites, it does seek space cooperation with other nations for the sake of its people.
SpaceSail has stated its intention to increase the number of people with access to stable internet, especially in rural areas and during times of crisis or natural disaster recovery.
China’s Military Interest in Satellite Dominance
Military experts, such as those at China’s National University of Defence Technology, have taken notice of Starlink’s fast growth and its role in the conflict in Ukraine, leading to substantial state financing for competing satellite networks.
This month, investors primarily associated with the Chinese government contributed 340 million yuan to Hongqing Technology, a company that was established in 2017 and is working on a constellation of 10,000 satellites.
An investment organization run by the Chinese government that aims to improve the country’s manufacturing capacity spearheaded a funding round that SpaceSail completed last year, raising $930 million (6.7 billion yuan).
Many members of the People’s Liberation Army in China’s scientific community have also focused on this area.
According to Anaqua’s AcclaimIP database, China published a record number of patents pertaining to LEO satellite technology in 2023, with 2,449 patents published, an increase from 162 in 2019.
Reuters reports that several of these projects highlight China’s efforts to bridge the technical gap by concentrating on low-latency communication systems and cost-efficient satellite networks.
“The space world is moving fast and busy experimenting,” remarked Antoine Grenier, global head of space at the Analysys Mason partnership. “Pioneers are enjoying this relative freedom and are shaping it to their advantage to claim key positions before rules become more stringent – like the Wild West.”
According to a patent application associated with the PLA, Starlink is a U.S. technology that is vital for military communications and reconnaissance, but it also poses “threats to network, data, and military security.” This suggests that Starlink is the subject of some Chinese investigation.
Tools to monitor and track Starlink’s constellation are also being developed by Beijing. In a January study published in a Chinese engineering journal, researchers from two institutes affiliated with the PLA announced that they had developed an algorithm and system to monitor megaconstellations similar to Starlink. The researchers drew inspiration from the way humpback whales catch prey by encircling them and producing spiraling bubbles.
“With the growing trend of space militarization, developing tools to monitor and track these megaconstellations is critically important,” according to the scientists.
