National Accounts Committee Approves Q4 and Revised Annual GDP Estimates for FY 2024-25

The 114th meeting of the National Accounts Committee (NAC) was held today in the N3C, Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, Headquarters, Statistics House, G-9/1, Islamabad. The Secretary, M/O PD&SI, chaired the meeting. The committee approved the quarterly GDP growth rates for Q1 (Revised), Q2 (Revised), Q3 (Revised), and Q4 during FY 2024-25 and updated annual growth rates for FY 2023-24 and FY 2024-25.

The committee approved revised quarterly GDP growth rates for Q1, Q2, & Q3 and fresh growth of Q4 during FY 2024-25. Overall GDP witnessed upward revisions in the first three quarters from 1.37% to 1.80% for Q1, from 1.53% to 1.94% for Q2, and from 2.40% to 2.79% for Q3.

These changes are mainly due to upward revisions in annual benchmarks in agriculture, resulting in improved growth rates from 0.84% to 1.55% in Q1, from 0.79% to 1.97% in Q2, and from 1.18% to 2.36% in Q3. Due to upward revisions in annual benchmarks, the industry has also witnessed improvements in all three quarters, from -0.91% to +0.32% in Q1, from -0.99% to +0.21% in Q2, and from -1.14% to +1.23% in Q3. While services have improved slightly from 2.28% to 2.36% during Q1, downward revisions have been observed in Q2 from 2.59% to 2.45% and from 3.99% to 3.45% in Q3.

The economy has posted a stable growth of 5.66% during Q4 of FY 2025. The growth in agriculture, industry, and services stands at +0.18%, +19.95%, and +3.72%, respectively. In agriculture, although important crops have declined by -17.55% but other crops have grown by +17.99% on account of double-digit growth in the production of green fodder (14.2%), onions (12.6%), and mangos (26.4%). Livestock (1.44%), forestry (3.60%), and fishing (2.23%) have also registered positive growth rates during Q4 FY 2025.

Contrary to the first three quarters, the industry has posted a healthy growth of +19.95% as compared to -3.06% during the same period last year. Although all the constituents of industry have contributed positively, e.g., mining & quarrying (+1.94%) and large-scale manufacturing (+2.96%), the electricity, gas & water supply industry has posted an overwhelming growth of +121.38% due to higher subsidies, a decline in the deflator, as well as the low base effect of -31.59%.

The construction industry has also contributed positively by +17.65% due to higher production of cement as well as higher government spending on infrastructure. The overall growth in services is +3.72% during Q4, with all the constituents contributing positively, i.e., wholesale & retail trade (+2.08%), transportation & storage (+4.06%), information and communication (+3.13%), finance & insurance activities (+6.81%), public administration and social security (+12.87%), education (+3.71%), health & social work (+2.51%), and other private services (+3.03%).

The committee approved the updated annual growth of 2.58% for FY 2024, which was estimated at 2.51% in the previous meeting. In the updated estimates, while agriculture has remained at the same level, i.e., 6.40%, the industry has improved from -1.37% to -1.19% mainly because of an upward revision in electricity, gas, and water supply from -19.86% to -19.10%. Services have also improved from 2.19% to 2.25%, mainly because of improvement in the transportation & storage industry (1.65% vs. 1.51%) (Table 1).

The committee also approved the updated annual growth of GDP at 3.04% during FY 2025, which was estimated at 2.68% during the previous meeting. The updated growth rates in agriculture, industry, and services are 1.51%, 5.26%, and 3.0% respectively as compared to earlier growth rates of 0.56%, 4.77%, and 2.91%, respectively. In agriculture, while important crops have slightly improved from -13.49% to -13.12%, other crops have witnessed significant improvement from 4.78% to +19.55% due to double-digit growth in the production of green fodder (16%), vegetables (12%), fruits (10%), and tobacco (25.7%). Livestock has decreased from 4.72% to 2.94% because of an increase in fodder inputs. Further, updated growth rates in forestry and fishing are 2.66% and 1.40%, respectively (Table 1).

The updated growth in industry during FY 2025 is 5.26% as compared to 4.77% estimated previously. The mining & quarrying industry has improved from -3.38% to -2.35% due to improvement in oil (3.5%), limestone (31.6%), marble (11.6%), and exploration cost (26.1%). Large-scale manufacturing, which is measured through the Quantum Index of Manufacturing (QIM), has improved from -1.53% to -0.69% due to increases in beverages (1.61%), tobacco (6.99%), textiles (2.49%), wearing apparel (5.7%), coke & petroleum (5.33%), the pharmaceutical industry (2.74%), automobiles (46.15%), transport equipment (36.6%), etc. Decline has also been observed in the manufacturing of food (-1.83%), chemicals (-2.46%), non-metallic mineral products (-7.88%), iron and steel products (-8.7%), machinery & equipment (-35.46%), and furniture (-56.3%), etc.

The electricity, gas, and water supply industry has slightly declined to 28.53% from 28.88%, mainly due to a decline in the output of WAPDA & Companies and renewables. The construction industry has slightly improved from 6.61% to 6.63% because of an increase in construction-related expenditure by the provincial governments (Table 1).

The services industry has also shown improvement from 2.91% to 3.0% in FY 2025, with positive contributions from all the constituents. Wholesale and retail trade has improved to +0.46% from 0.14% because of improvements in agriculture, manufacturing, and imports. The transport and storage industry has improved to +2.43% from 2.20% due to upward revisions reported by NTRC, PIA, domestic airlines, CAA, foreign airlines, KPT, and storage activities. While Information & Communication has slightly declined from 6.48% to +5.85%, Finance & Insurance has improved from 3.22% to +3.90% due to improvement in the insurance industry.

The remaining components of services, i.e., Public Administration and Social Security (from 9.92% to +9.88), Education (from 4.43% to +4.13), Human Health and Social Work (from 3.71% to +3.56), and Other Private Services (from 3.64% to +3.49), have remained in the positive trajectory despite slight downward adjustments (Table 1).

Based on the latest figures of the national accounts aggregates for FY 2025, the overall size of the economy stands at Rs 113.7 trillion, i.e., 407.2 billion, as compared to Rs 105.2 trillion, i.e., 371.8 billion, in the previous year. Further, per capita income in rupees is 506,188/-, i.e., 1812/-. However, the series of per capita income from 2016-17 onwards will be revised after the receipt of backward and forward projections of population from the sources on the basis of the 2023 Population Census.

Overall, the forum appreciated the efforts of the National Accounts team of PBS and key stakeholders, including the Ministry of Planning, Development, and Special Initiatives; the Ministry of Finance; and the State Bank of Pakistan, in preparation of the quarterly GDP and annual GDP.

Gross Domestic Product of Pakistan (at constant basic prices of 2015-16) (Rs. in Million)