Pakistan Banking Sector 3QCY25 Earnings Preview: NBP, UBL Lead Growth

Pakistan’s commercial banks are set to post solid earnings growth in the third quarter of 2025 (3QCY25), with the Arif Habib Limited (AHL) banking universe outperforming the KSE-100 Index by 44% in total returns. National Bank of Pakistan (NBP), United Bank Limited (UBL), and Bank of Punjab (BOP) are projected to lead profitability, supported by expanding low-cost deposits and rising fee income.

The report highlights that during the first nine months of 2025, the banking sector posted an 88% return compared to the broader market. Despite pressure from low asset yields, proactive measures such as deposit base expansion and improved trade activity have supported performance.

According to AHL Research, NBP’s earnings are expected to jump by 17.8x year-on-year, with UBL and BOP showing increases of 94% and 40%, respectively. Lower inflation (average CPI: 4.2% vs. 9.2% last year) has eased operating costs, while non-interest income from card transactions and branch operations continues to rise. Despite moderated profitability, banks are maintaining healthy dividend payouts and remain well-capitalized above regulatory requirements.

Financial Highlights (3QCY25 Estimates):

“Banks have focused on strengthening their low-cost deposit base and expanding non-interest income streams, ensuring stability despite margin pressures,”  AHL Research Report, Oct 2025.

With deposits surging and the Advance-to-Deposit Ratio (ADR) stable at 38.7%, Pakistan’s banking sector remains fundamentally strong. The trend of digital banking, trade recovery, and improved cost discipline suggests further resilience heading into 2026.