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Pakistan’s urea sales are expected to drop to a 75-month low in January 2026, sharply reversing after record-breaking sales in December 2025, as advance buying, reduced discounts, and fading seasonal demand hit fertilizer offtake hard, according to Topline Securities.
Sector data shows urea sales in January 2026 are likely to stand at just 218,000 tons, reflecting an 84% decline month-on-month and a 51% drop year on year. The slowdown comes immediately after December 2025’s all-time high sales of 1.36 million tons, driven by aggressive price discounts offered by manufacturers.
Topline Securities noted that farmers front-loaded purchases in December to benefit from unusually high discounts, leaving January demand thin as prices normalized and Rabi season requirements tapered.
“The January decline reflects normalization after an exceptionally strong December, as discounts were rolled back and seasonal demand weakened,” the research note said.
In January, Engro Fertilizers (EFERT) reduced its discount to Rs. 100 to 150 per bag, compared to Rs. 400 per bag in December, while Fauji Fertilizer Company (FFC) offered no discounts after providing up to Rs. 200 per bag earlier. The pullback directly impacted offtake across the sector.
EFERT is expected to post the steepest fall, with urea sales dropping 96% MoM and 77% YoY to just 24,000 tons, while FFC’s sales are estimated at 175,000 tons, down 54% MoM.
Despite weaker demand, production remained steady, pushing urea inventories up to around 630,000 tons in January, nearly double the December level. EFERT and Fatima Group are expected to hold the largest stocks, signaling potential pressure on pricing if demand does not recover.
DAP sales are also projected to remain weak at around 34,000 tons, down 58% MoM, as farmers delay purchases amid softer crop demand and elevated inventory levels.
Pakistan’s fertilizer market often sees volatility around the Rabi and Kharif cycles. However, the scale of December’s advance buying fueled by unusually deep discounts created a demand vacuum entering 2026, making January’s slowdown one of the sharpest in recent years.
