Pakistan’s inflation is expected to rise again from April, as increasing global oil prices begin to show their impact on fuel, transport, and electricity costs. Early estimates suggest inflation could return close to double digits, reversing the recent trend of slowing price growth.
Recent reports indicate that inflation, which had been gradually easing over the past few months, may pick up pace again. Analysts from different brokerage houses believe April inflation could approach 10%, while March is likely to close in the higher range of around 7%.
The main reason behind this shift is the sharp increase in international oil prices. These rising costs have already started affecting domestic fuel rates, even though the government has tried to cushion the impact through partial subsidies. On average, fuel prices rose significantly in March, leading to higher transport fares and delivery costs.
Experts say fuel and transport alone accounted for a major share of the monthly increase in inflation. As transport costs rise, the impact spreads quickly to everyday items, making goods more expensive for consumers across the country.
Electricity prices have added further pressure. A recent fuel cost adjustment has increased per-unit charges, and its extension to a wider group of consumers has made electricity bills heavier. This has not only affected households but also increased costs for businesses, which may pass on the burden to customers.
The current situation reflects a broader pattern where inflation is no longer limited to food items but is being driven by rising input and energy costs. This type of cost-push inflation tends to be harder to control, especially when linked to global price movements.
Attention is now turning to the State Bank of Pakistan, which is scheduled to hold its next Monetary Policy Committee meeting on April 27. The central bank had earlier kept the policy rate unchanged, but growing inflation risks may force it to reconsider its position.
