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In a significant economic milestone, Pakistan recorded an all-time high of $4.1 billion in workers’ remittances for March 2025, according to Governor State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Jameel Ahmad. Speaking at the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) during the launch of Financial Literacy Week, the governor revealed that this unprecedented inflow has prompted the central bank to revise its annual remittance projection from $36 billion to $38 billion for the current fiscal year.
“This represents the strongest performance on the external account in two decades, with a substantial surplus expected,” said Ahmad.
The SBP’s updated outlook reflects increasing confidence in Pakistan’s external stability. Total remittances for the first nine months of FY25 (July–March) stand at $28.07 billion, a 33% increase compared to the same period last year.
The surge has also contributed to a more optimistic projection for the country’s foreign exchange reserves, which are now expected to climb to $14 billion by the end of June, up from an earlier estimate of $13 billion. This comes despite a recent $2 billion decline in reserves, currently standing at $10.6 billion, largely attributed to debt repayments.
Ahmad noted that the SBP expects to receive $4-5 billion from external sources, including multilateral institutions, before the end of the fiscal year to bolster reserves further.
Amid concerns over import restrictions and sluggish economic activity, Ahmad offered reassurance: “Those questioning whether import restrictions exist or if economic activity is stagnating should examine the data.” He pointed to a rise in monthly imports to $5.7 billion, indicating a gradual revival in economic momentum.
Foreign Reserves Projected to Reach $14 Billion
Despite this improvement, GDP growth for FY25 is now expected to hover around 3%, down from a potential 4.2% due to a less-than-expected agricultural output. “It would have grown to 4.2% in the year if agricultural output had remained robust at the previous year’s level of 8%,” he added.
On the inflation front, Ahmad issued a cautionary note. After reaching a six-decade low of 0.7% in March, price pressures are expected to build in the coming months. “I can share from the State Bank’s side that this was exactly what we had projected and what we presented to our Monetary Policy Committee on the 10th of March,” he said.
The drop in inflation was mainly driven by lower food and electricity prices. However, given Pakistan’s recent history of prolonged double-digit inflation — peaking at 38% in May 2023 — the SBP remains watchful of future price movements.
According to AKD Securities, March’s remittances were primarily sourced from Saudi Arabia ($987 million), the UAE ($842 million), the UK ($684 million), and the US ($419 million).
| Country | Amount (in USD) |
|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia | $987 million |
| UAE | $842 million |
| United Kingdom | $684 million |
| United States | $419 million |
This remittance boom has come as a welcome relief for the government, especially after facing one of the worst economic crises in 2023. That period saw dwindling foreign reserves and the country securing a $7 billion IMF bailout to stabilize its balance of payments. As of now, the SBP projects that $16 billion out of the $26 billion in external debt due this year will be either rolled over or refinanced easing the country’s repayment burden.
As Ahmad put it: “Every indicator is indicating that the economic activity has substantially picked up.” Yet, he acknowledged that these improvements are “not fully reflected in the growth numbers because of agriculture.”
