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Pakistan is approaching a historic energy milestone. Next year, rooftop solar generation will exceed power demand on the national electrical grid during daytime hours in several major industrial regions. Aisha Moriani, Secretary of Pakistan’s Climate Change Ministry, confirmed this development to Reuters at the COP30 climate conference in Brazil.
This shift highlights a massive boom in solar panel installations across the country. Consequently, this surge delivers lower emissions and reduced electricity bills for consumers. However, it also disrupts the finances of debt-laden utilities due to a sustained decline in demand for grid-based electricity.
The Rise of “Negative Demand”
Moriani explained that Pakistan will experience negative grid-linked demand during specific daytime hours. Behind-the-meter solar energy is completely offsetting grid consumption. While Europe and Australia face similar situations, Pakistan stands out among emerging markets. It will be one of the first to see rooftop generation entirely exceed grid-linked demand in major areas for extended periods.
This phenomenon is most likely to occur in Lahore, which currently boasts the country’s highest solar penetration. Furthermore, Faisalabad and Sialkot will follow, as their industrial areas aggressively drive solar adoption. These negative-demand events will happen frequently during bright summer afternoons, industrial holidays, and days with moderate temperatures but high solar output.
Severe power cuts and steep tariff hikes have forced Pakistan’s 250 million citizens to accelerate solar adoption. As a result, the nation has become the world’s third-largest importer of solar panels. Solar’s share in generation now exceeds that of its neighbour, China.
While renewable energy grows, the grid faces hurdles. Moriani noted that the challenge lies in evolving the grid, regulation, and market design fast enough to keep pace. Grid-linked power demand will likely grow only 3-4% this year. Although consumption may rise next year, higher solar usage will heavily impact it.
To address this, the government plans to introduce new tariffs for large solar users. Additionally, they will change fee structures. This ensures that businesses with panels share the costs of grid upkeep equally.
Impact of Pakistan’s Rooftop Solar on LNG & Gas Contracts
Pakistan’s rooftop solar boom has rippled into the gas sector. The surge in solar use has pushed Pakistan to renegotiate its LNG contracts with Qatar, its top supplier. Moreover, the country has cancelled cargoes previously supplied by Italy’s Eni.
Pakistan is now seeking lower prices, flexible delivery schedules, and potentially fewer cargoes. The government aims for stability and affordability rather than expanding LNG dependency. Moriani emphasised that while no formal negotiations occurred at COP30, the event provided diplomatic space to align Pakistan’s gas import strategy with its new demand outlook.
