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The government has clarified that Pakistan’s growing shift toward rooftop solar is not harming the national grid, easing concerns raised in recent months. The statement came during a public hearing on Tuesday, November 18, where the Central Power Purchasing Agency (CPPA) briefed the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA).
Rooftop Solar Use Growing, But Grid Impact Still Low
CPPA CEO Rehan Akhtar told NEPRA that solar generation is rising quickly. However, he noted that this growth has not created any significant stress on the grid.
He said consumers with rooftop solar are now producing more power due to better solar availability. Yet, their withdrawal from the national grid remains almost stable. They are drawing roughly the same amount of electricity they consumed before shifting to solar. He added that this trend holds for now, but future behaviour cannot be predicted.
The CPPA, which operates under the Power Division, is responsible for purchasing electricity from different sources, delivering it to all distribution companies, and handling their commercial matters.
Net metering has expanded sharply. According to CPPA data presented at the hearing:
- Net metering units rose 173% in 2024.
- They reached 726 million units, up from 266 million units in 2023.
- Distribution companies (Discos) showed 1% growth during the same period.
- K-Electric’s offtake from the grid increased 9.4% as it started drawing the full 2,050 MW.
These figures highlight a strong shift toward small-scale solar while grid dependence remains steady in several regions.
CPPA Outlines PPP Rebasing Scenarios for 2026
The comments were part of CPPA’s request for rebasing the Power Purchase Price (PPP) from January 2026. The agency shared five tariff scenarios based on different economic assumptions.
Under these scenarios:
- The average PPP ranges between Rs. 25.95 per unit (best case) and Rs. 26.53 per unit (worst case).
- The worst case assumes the rupee falling to Rs. 300–310 per dollar, from the current Rs. 280–290 range.
- The existing PPP for FY26 is Rs. 25.98 per unit, indicating stability so far.
Fuel costs are expected to stay mostly stable, with a possible 5% increase in global prices in a worst-case situation. CPPA also projected that the local currency could weaken by Rs. 10 in the first half of next year and another Rs. 10 in the second half, in one scenario. Interest rates were estimated at 11% for the first half of 2026 and 10.5% for the second.
Industry Raises Concerns Over High Energy Costs
Industrial consumers strongly opposed rising electricity costs. They said their products are becoming uncompetitive due to expensive energy. They also argued that the industry continues to cross-subsidise other consumers by Rs. 131 billion.
They added that all tariff reductions previously announced by the government have already faded. Moreover, they challenged CPPA’s claim that demand will increase. According to them, consumption is dropping because of:
- High electricity prices
- Industrial shutdowns
- A growing shift to solar power
The debate around Pakistan’s energy pricing, solar adoption, and grid stability is likely to continue as policymakers prepare for the 2026 tariff shift.
