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Pakistan’s fast growing rooftop solar adoption is set to exceed national grid demand in major industrial cities next year, marking a historic shift in the country’s energy landscape. The breakthrough comes as soaring tariffs, worsening outages, and climate commitments push households and industries toward cheaper solar power solutions.
At the COP30 climate conference in Brazil, Aisha Moriani, Secretary of the Ministry of Climate Change, confirmed that cities such as Lahore, Faisalabad and Sialkot may witness “negative grid-linked demand” in 2026. This means daytime solar generation from homes, factories, and commercial units will fully replace and at times exceed grid electricity demand.
Pakistan’s solar push has accelerated sharply in the past two years. The country has become the third largest global importer of solar panels, and officials say solar’s expansion is now growing even faster than in several regional markets.
“Pakistan’s energy model is shifting faster than anticipated. Solar adoption is reshaping our demand curve,” Moriani said.
While similar trends are seen in Europe and Australia, Pakistan is now on track to become one of the first emerging markets to experience extended periods of negative grid demand, especially during summer afternoons or industrial off days.
However, this rapid shift has created financial pressure on loss making power utilities. As grid electricity demand drops, revenues fall, leading the government to consider new tariff mechanisms for high capacity solar users. Officials say the aim is to ensure solar consumers also contribute to grid upkeep to avoid further strain on the power sector.
At the same time, the surge in solar output is influencing Pakistan’s LNG strategy. The government is renegotiating LNG contracts with Qatar and European suppliers.
“Pakistan seeks stability and affordability, not expansion of LNG dependency,” Moriani added, noting that lower gas demand during peak solar hours must be reflected in future import volumes.
Despite these challenges, officials see the solar boom as critical for reducing fossil fuel imports, improving energy security, and cutting electricity costs for millions of households.
