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Ethereum is trading around $4,600 (PKR 12.88 lac), trapped in an ascending channel where buyers are defending higher lows and resistance looms near $4,850 (PKR 13.5 lac). If it breaks above that barrier, analysts believe ETH could aim for $5,200 (PKR 1.45 lac) and, with sustained momentum, even set sights on $10,000 (PKR 28 lac).
On-chain data shows exchange reserves have dropped significantly. Ethereum holdings on centralized exchanges have fallen from about 28 million ETH in early 2023 to roughly 17.1 million ETH by September 2025, with some sources saying reserves have dipped even further to about 15.72 million ETH, the lowest since 2016. Whales alone withdrew over 3.8 million ETH from exchanges in July 2025, signaling long-term holding behavior.
Institutional interest remains strong, driven by spot Ethereum ETFs and staking protocols. The 100-day moving average remains above the 200-day, a bullish sign. ETH is consolidating just below resistance, and drops in open interest may indicate accumulation phases ahead.
The reduction of exchange reserves continues to lower sell pressure, meaning that amounts bought or staked off-platform could have a bigger impact on price movements. Some whales are diversifying into projects like Remittix (REMX), dubbed “XRP 2.0,” while still maintaining heavy ETH exposure, showing confidence in the ecosystem’s growth.
If ETH closes decisively above $4,850, short-term targets like $5,200 become viable. Given current supply compression and institutional demand, the longer-term run toward $7,000–$10,000 seems realistic if macroeconomic conditions remain favorable. However, failure to clear resistance could see a pullback toward $4,000 (PKR 11 lac) or lower.
Key things to watch include ETH’s behavior above $4,850, the ongoing decline in exchange reserves, open interest trends, ETF inflows, and macroeconomic factors such as Fed policy and inflation.
In short: the path to $10,000 is not guaranteed, but Ethereum’s strong fundamentals, tightening supply, and institutional momentum make a powerful rally more likely in the coming months.
