Petrol prices in Pakistan are expected to rise by approximately Rs4.75 per litre when the government announces its next fortnightly fuel pricing decision shortly.
Industry estimates show petrol could increase from the current Rs270.03 per litre to Rs274.77 per litre for the upcoming pricing cycle beginning mid-May.
High-speed diesel prices are projected to remain nearly stable, rising by only around Rs0.20 per litre to reach Rs334.93 per litre under the same review.
What is driving petrol prices higher
The main factor behind the petrol increase is a rise in international Free on Board gasoline prices, which climbed from $139.03 to $143.01 per barrel recently.
A decline in premiums and incidental costs offered consumers some partial relief, but the savings were not sufficient to offset the higher international market prices fully.
The removal of a previous Pakistan State Oil adjustment of Rs1.41 per litre also contributed to the overall projected increase in petrol prices this cycle.
Why diesel prices are holding steady
International diesel FOB prices rose sharply from $160.41 per barrel to $172.99 per barrel during the review period, a significant increase in global energy markets.
However, a reduction in customs duty of more than Rs20 per litre largely offset the impact of higher global diesel prices on Pakistani consumers this time.
Further reductions in incidental costs also helped neutralise the effect of rising international prices, keeping projected high-speed diesel prices broadly stable for the next cycle.
Exchange rate and final pricing
The Pakistani rupee remained broadly stable during the review period, holding at approximately Rs278.9 against the US dollar and limiting the effect of currency movements.
A stable exchange rate reduced the risk of additional cost pressure on domestic fuel prices that typically arise from significant currency depreciation during any given review period.
Industry officials said final consumer prices would depend on government decisions on taxes, petroleum levy, and any exchange rate adjustments before the official notification is issued.
