Global commodity prices are projected to rise 23 percent in 2026, the World Bank said on Wednesday, as the Middle East war, disrupted Black Sea grain shipments and strong demand for gold push costs higher across energy, food and metals markets.
The bank said in its latest Commodity Markets Outlook that energy prices jumped 32 percent this year to their highest level since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine by Russia. Metals are expected to climb 25 percent and precious metals 40 percent.
Aluminium, copper and tin are all set to reach record highs, driven by supply disruptions and strong demand from renewable energy, electric vehicles and data centres. Gold demand has been lifted by geopolitical and policy uncertainty.
Global oil stocks have been depleted by the war in the Middle East. Oil supply is forecast to fall 5.2 percent in 2026, the largest drop in four decades outside the 2020 recession. Brent crude is expected to average $92 per barrel this year. Oil demand is forecast to fall 2.5 percent, the third-largest decline after 2020 and the 1980 oil crisis.
Food commodity prices are set to rise just over 10 percent in 2026 because of grain shipment disruptions linked to hostilities between Russia and Ukraine in the Black Sea. A further increase of more than 7 percent is expected in 2027, for a cumulative rise of nearly 18 percent. Fertiliser prices are projected to rise 14 percent in 2026 on higher urea prices, before returning to 2025 levels in 2027.
Overall commodity prices are expected to ease 7 percent next year. However, continued shocks, including forecasts of the strongest El Nino effect since 1950, could keep food prices elevated and raise the risk of higher inflation and tighter monetary policy.
The bank warned of an adverse scenario combining a record El Nino, further Black Sea disruptions, escalation in the Middle East and continued damage to Russian oil infrastructure. Under that scenario, food prices could be 12 percent higher than expected. This could trigger a food crisis similar to that of the early 2010s, when more than 40 million additional people were pushed into extreme poverty.
“Commodity markets are being hit by several major shocks at once,” said Ayhan Kose, deputy chief economist in the World Bank. “Higher energy costs and trade disruptions are driving up prices across a broad range of commodities, threatening to worsen inflation, food insecurity, and economic growth.”
Kose said the bank is focused on protecting the poorest people and supporting low-income countries already facing heavy debt burdens. The bank has provided $8.7 billion in low-cost loans and other aid to 25 countries affected by the Middle East war. Ten of these countries retooled existing programmes to cover crisis-related costs, and 19 tapped new resources, with some doing both.
The report was released two days before foreign ministers from the 20 largest economies in the world are due to meet in Atlanta, Georgia, for talks focused on the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine.
