A Data Scientist Explains Odds of Dying in a Terrorist Attack

By Zeeshan ul Hassan ⏐ 10 years ago ⏐

3 min read

Here come the daily headlines of Al-Qa’eda, Taliban, ISIS, and all the lone wolf attackers out there from Pakistan to Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Nigeria, France, Belgium, USA, Canada and list goes on and on.

Projected and orchestrated by media, sometimes it seems “terrorism” is the only cause of unnatural death that we face. And lives of millions of travelers suffer due to this inevitable “threat”. There were 2.84 billion commercial air passengers in 2011 alone with only 373 fatalities, so one’s chance of dying in the commercial jet is 1 in 7.6 million.

With the emotion-less and analytical brain that I got, I wanted to put things in perspective. Statistically speaking, here are few odds of dying with the causes:

Drowning in a Bathtub: 1 in 685,000
Fatally Slipping during a Shower: 1 in 812,232
Being Struck by Lightning: 1 in 576,000
Being Murdered: 1 in 18,000
Dying from any kind of Injury: 1 in 1,820
Dying from intentional Self-harm: 1 in 9,380
Dying from an Assault: 1 in 16,421
Dying from a Car Accident: 1 in 18,585
Dying from any kind of Fall: 1 in 20,666mo
Dying from Accidental Drowning: 1 in 79,065
Dying from Exposure to Smoke, Fire, and Flames: 1 in 81,524
Dying from Forces of Nature (earthquake, heat, cold, lightning, flood): 1 in 225,107
Dying from Choking on Food: 1 in 370,035
Dying in a Fireworks Accident: 1 in 1,000,000
Dying from a Dog Bite: 1 in 700,000
Dying from Falling off a Ladder: 1 in 2,300,000
Dying form unintentional Alcohol Poisoning: 1 in 820,217
Dying from a Heart Disease: 1 in 5
Dying from a Cancer: 1 in 7
Dying from a Stroke: 1 in 23
Dying from Electrocution: 1 in 5,000
Bee, Snake Venomous Sting: 1 in 100,000
Scalded by Hot Tap Water: 1 in 5,000,000
By Falling Coconut: 1 in 250,000,000
By a Shark Attack: 1 in 300,000,000
Dying of a Snake Bite: 1 in 3,500,000
Dying from Food Poisoning: 1 in 3,000,000
Dying from Accident at Work: 1 in 43,500
Dying in a Road Accident: 1 in 8,000

And odds of dying in a terrorist attack while on-board is 1 in 25,000,000 (25 million) and the overall average of dying in any kind of terrorist attack worldwide is 1 in 9,300,000 (9.3 million).

So in contrast, you are 14 times more likely to die in your bathtub than in a terrorist attack, 11 times more likely to die by slipping during a shower, 16 times by lightning, 517 times more likely to be murdered (there is on average one murder every 60 seconds worldwide), 991 times by self-injury, 500 times in a car accident (3,000 people die every day in road accidents worldwide), 450 times by falling, 118 times by accidental drowning, 41 times in natural disasters (earthquake, flood etc.), 25 times by choking on food, 13 times by a dog bite, 4 times by falling off a ladder, 1.8 million times by a heart disease, 1860 times by electrocution, 93 times by bee sting, and 3 times more likely to die by a snake bite or food poisoning.

If not convinced, here is another interesting set of statistics:

Odds of being an astronaut: 1 in 13,200,000
Odds of winning an Olympic Gold Medal: 1 in 662,000
Odds of becoming a President: 1 in 10,000,000
Odds of sighting a UFO today: 1 in 3,000,000
Odds of dating a Supermodel: 1 in 88,000

So, you have twice the chances of becoming an astronaut than flying in a plane doomed to crash due to a terrorist plot, almost the same chances of becoming a president than dying in a terrorist attack (isn’t it ironic?), three times more likely to sight a UFO today, 14 times more likely to win a gold medal in the Olympics, and 106 times more chances of dating Kim Kardashian.