From Spectrum Shortage to 5G: Pakistan’s Telecom Sector at a Crossroads

Pakistan’s telecom sector faces a decisive moment. It remains one of the most spectrum-constrained in the region, having auctioned just 274 MHz of IMT spectrum, far less than Saudi Arabia (1,200 MHz), Thailand (600 MHz), and Bangladesh (600 MHz).

This shortage hinders quality of service (QoS), fuels network congestion, and has delayed the rollout of 5G services. Recognizing these limitations, Pakistani regulators have planned to release over 600 MHz more spectrum to resolve these issues and enable network modernization.

Despite these efforts, the spectrum auction process has stalled. Ongoing legal disputes, unresolved policy directives, and a pending merger between Telenor Pakistan and PTCL have created roadblocks. The delays hinder spectrum availability, stall auction design, and threaten the digital infrastructure of the nation.

According to official documents from the Pakistan Telecommunication Authority (PTA), reviewed by TechJuice, critical insights into the upcoming spectrum auction and its regulatory framework have been revealed.

Spectrum Scarcity and Its Impact

• Pakistan has 274 MHz of IMT spectrum allocated, lagging far behind regional peers Saudi Arabia (1,200 MHz), Thailand (600 MHz), and Bangladesh (600 MHz).
• Addressing QoS issues and network congestion, Pakistan plans to auction around 600 MHz of IMT spectrum.

Auction Roadmap & Delays

• GoP 5G Trial Policy (2017) and PTA 5G Test Framework (2019) provided a foundation for experimentation. Operators have since conducted successful trials.
• The 5G spectrum auction process officially started in 2023. An Advisory Committee, chaired by the finance minister, oversees it.
• In November 2024, PTA hired NERA, a US-based firm, to conduct a market assessment and valuation and recommend auction design.

NERA’s timelines suggest:

• Market assessment by February 2025
• Policy recommendations and auction design by March–April 2025
• Auction and licensing: mid-2025
• Commercial 5G launch: Q1 2026

Major Roadblocks

1. Telenor–PTCL Merger Uncertainty

• The Competition Commission of Pakistan (CCP) has yet to approve PTCL’s acquisition of Telenor Pakistan, delaying the auction.
• Without clarity on how many mobile operators will emerge post-merger (three or four), designing fair auction terms remains difficult.

2. Litigation Over Spectrum Bands

• Several spectrum bands are tied up in court:
• 2600 MHz: 140 MHz under litigation (Sun TV case).
• 1800 MHz: 6.6 MHz potentially locked.
• 2100 MHz: 10 MHz reserved but contested.

Only a limited spectrum is currently auctionable—insufficient for robust 5G deployment.

3. Missed Target Dates

• The June 2025 auction deadline was missed due to a pending CCP decision and unlisted advisory committee meetings.
• Legal and policy delays continue to push the schedule beyond initial timelines.

Economic & Sectoral Implications

Potential benefits of 5G adoption are significant:

• GDP boost of 1.5–2.4%
• Export growth of 1.9%
• FDI may rise by ~2%
• Job creation ranging from 3.1 to 13.2%

Sectoral enhancements include:

• Faster connectivity, improved QoS
• Growth in healthcare, manufacturing, and agriculture
• Improvements in e-governance, disaster response, education, and smart infrastructure.

Regulatory Initiatives & Government Interventions

• FAB (Frequency Allocation Board) oversees spectrum management, licensing, and regulation.

PTA is enabling:

• National roaming
• SIM security
• VoWiFi for indoor access
• Phasing out 3 G to boost 4G service
• Wi-Fi 6E/7 access to 6 GHz spectrum
• Fixed wireless access in challenging territories
• Online services for licensing, site clearance, and monitoring

Public Sentiments

Tech professionals remain skeptical:

“First, we should get proper 4G; 5G is out of the question.”
“From a business perspective, 5G makes no sense in Pakistan; the infrastructure and user readiness aren’t there.”

Ookla ranks Pakistan among the lowest globally in internet speeds, with an average of ~20 Mbps vs. 96 Mbps in India and 115 Mbps in China.

 Can Pakistan Still Catch Up?

Pakistan’s 5G journey hinges on two critical breakthroughs:

1. Legal resolution—CCP approval for the Telenor-PTCL merger and lifting spectrum litigation.
2. Regulatory clarity—finalizing auction policy, allocating spectrum, and timely implementation.

If these are addressed, the revised roadmap points to

• Spectrum auction in mid-2025
• Commercial 5G rollout in Q1 2026

Pakistan stands at a crossroads. Swift action can restore momentum in the telecom sector, enabling digital transformation and aligning the country with regional peers.