The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) is expected to maintain its policy rate at 11.5% at its upcoming Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on September 14, 2026, according to Arif Habib Limited (AHL).
An AHL survey found that 87.5% of respondents expect the central bank to leave the policy rate unchanged, while 12.5% anticipate a 50-basis-point increase.
Several economic indicators could influence the SBP’s decision. Pakistan’s current account deficit narrowed 38% year-on-year to $328 million in July, while workers’ remittances increased 13% to $3.6 billion.
The country also recorded a primary fiscal surplus of 2.9% of GDP in FY26, exceeding the target agreed with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
However, inflation has emerged as a key concern. Average CPI inflation reached 10.18% during the first two months of FY27, compared with 3.56% during the same period a year earlier.
The SBP is expected to assess whether the rise in inflation is broad-based and persistent before making any changes to the interest rate.
Economic growth also provides some support for maintaining the current rate. Large-scale manufacturing expanded by around 5% in FY26, marking its strongest growth in approximately four years.
With inflation elevated but external and fiscal indicators showing improvement, market expectations currently favor the SBP maintaining its 11.5% policy rate at the September 14 meeting.
