3 min read
Next-gen crypto platform, Gemini’s Head of Asia Pacific, Saad Ahmed, has argued that Bitcoin’s famous four year cycle will likely persist. This cycle is traditionally tied to halving events and boom bust trends, although Ahmed thinks this time, it will be in a modified form. Rather than being governed by strict mathematical patterns, he believes the cycle endures because of collective human behavior and emotion.
Speaking at the Token2049 conference in Singapore, Ahmed explained that while the four year rhythm may lose its past precision, the emotional pattern of euphoria, overextension, crash, and rebalancing remains embedded in market psychology.
“People get really excited and overextend themselves, and then you kind of see a crash, and then it kind of corrects to an equilibrium,” he said.
He added that institutional participation could reduce market extremes but not erase the emotional component entirely. “You’ll see some of the volatility flag off, but you’ll still see some sort of a cycle, because ultimately it’s driven by human emotion.”
Institutions Enter, Cycles Shift
Ahmed’s observations come amid a larger debate over whether Bitcoin’s traditional market cycles still apply in an era dominated by institutional investors. Analysts at Glassnode note that Bitcoin’s price movements still reflect the broad outline of previous halving cycles, but growing deviations indicate that institutional activity and macro conditions are reshaping the rhythm.
Similarly, Rekt Capital, a popular market analyst, predicts a possible cycle peak around October 2025, roughly 550 days after the April 2024 halving, consistent with past patterns.
However, some experts disagree. Fundstrat’s CIO Tom Lee recently suggested that the rise of institutional investors could break the traditional cycle entirely by introducing steadier capital inflows and reducing volatility.
The emergence of spot Bitcoin ETFs and the increasing trend of corporations holding Bitcoin in their treasuries further complicate the halving narrative, as liquidity and investor behavior become less dependent on mining rewards.
Ahmed’s Role and Asia Expansion
Beyond market theory, Ahmed has been instrumental in Gemini’s expansion across Asia. He leverages his leadership experience from Uber and Grab to navigate diverse regulatory environments. Under his guidance, Gemini has secured in principle approval for a Major Payment Institution (MPI) license in Singapore, reinforcing its position as a compliant, innovation driven crypto exchange.
Ahmed’s argument finds a balanced middle ground. The Bitcoin cycle is evolving, not disappearing. Behavioral patterns of fear, greed, and fear of missing out continue to shape market sentiment, even as institutional influence lengthens and softens cycles.
Academic studies reinforce this view, showing that Bitcoin’s growing correlation with equities and global macro trends has added new layers of complexity.
Ultimately, as institutional capital stabilizes and the market matures, Bitcoin’s boom and correction pattern may stretch beyond four years, but the emotional pulse driving it will likely endure.
