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The Pakistani rupee (PKR) is expected to depreciate to 290–295 against the US dollar by December 2026, according to a report by Topline Securities. The exchange rate is likely to stay between Rs. 285 and Rs. 290 by mid-2026, reflecting gradual weakening amid fiscal and structural adjustments.
Topline attributes the projection to a mix of improved fiscal discipline, steady remittance inflows, and moderate inflation. The report estimates remittances to rise by 7.5% to $41.2 billion, in line with State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) targets, while the current account deficit is projected between 0.25% and 0.75% of GDP (around $2.5–3.5 billion).
Inflation is forecast to remain in the 6.5–8% range through FY26–FY27, assuming a PKR/USD rate of Rs. 299 and controlled hikes in energy prices. The fiscal deficit, however, could touch 4.6% of GDP due to flood-related spending and lower revenue collection.
Topline noted,
“Despite challenges, Pakistan’s reform progress and improving liquidity conditions may help the rupee avoid sharp depreciation.”
The report also highlighted investor confidence and reform continuity as key supports for currency stability heading into FY27, especially with the government targeting a primary surplus of 1.6%.
