The share of Pakistani mothers with five or more children has fallen from 47 percent in 1990–91 to 33 percent in 2017–18, according to an analysis by Gallup Pakistan, though the pace of decline remains far slower than in neighboring India.
The study, based on Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey microdata and compared with India’s National Family Health Survey series from 1993 to 2021, found that smaller families have become more common in Pakistan over the same period. The combined share of mothers with only one or two children rose from 26 percent to 33 percent.
Despite this shift, Pakistan continues to lag well behind India in family size transition. By 2021, 60 percent of Indian mothers had only one or two children, compared with 33 percent in Pakistan’s most recent survey. Only 8 percent of Indian mothers had five or more children, against 33 percent in Pakistan.
The report noted that Pakistan’s 2017–18 figures do not match India’s 2006 levels, as commonly assumed. India’s share of mothers with five or more children had already dropped to 20 percent by 2006, well below Pakistan’s 33 percent more than a decade later. Pakistan’s latest figure remains higher than India’s earliest recorded rate of 27 percent in 1993.
Gallup Pakistan concluded that while both countries are moving toward smaller family sizes, India’s transition has occurred at a considerably faster rate. In Pakistan, mothers with three or more children still make up the majority of the surveyed population.
The analysis also pointed to a limitation in tracking Pakistan’s demographic change, noting that the country’s fewer DHS survey rounds make it difficult to measure the pace of transition between 1990–91 and 2017–18. India’s more frequent NFHS surveys, by contrast, offer a clearer timeline of demographic shifts.
The findings are based on data from the Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey for 1990–91 and 2017–18, and India’s National Family Health Survey for 1993 to 2021, reflecting the distribution of ever-married mothers by total number of children born.
