Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has revised downward its global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 amid continued disruptions in energy markets caused by the Iran conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
In its latest monthly report released on Wednesday, OPEC said global oil demand is now expected to grow by 1.17 million barrels per day in 2026, lower than the earlier estimate of 1.38 million barrels per day.
However, the group raised its 2027 demand growth projection by 200,000 barrels per day to 1.54 million barrels per day, expressing optimism about a gradual recovery in consumption over the longer term.
According to the report, disruptions linked to the Iran conflict have severely affected the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global shipping route responsible for transporting millions of barrels of Middle Eastern oil supplies each day.
The supply disruption has tightened global markets and pushed fuel prices higher, increasing costs for consumers and businesses while prompting several governments to introduce energy conservation measures.
Despite geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, OPEC maintained its global economic growth forecast, stating that the world economy continues to show resilience.
The organization now expects global oil demand in the second quarter of 2026 to average 104.57 million barrels per day, compared to last month’s projection of 105.07 million barrels per day.
Meanwhile, the broader OPEC+ group had previously agreed to increase oil production starting from April. However, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted supply plans and contributed to lower output levels.
According to secondary sources cited in the report, OPEC+ production averaged 33.19 million barrels per day in April, marking a decline of 1.74 million barrels per day compared to March.
The report also included production figures from the United Arab Emirates, which officially exited OPEC on May 1.
