Meta is reportedly moving into prediction markets with a new app. The company is developing a smartphone app similar to Polymarket and Kalshi. CEO Mark Zuckerberg recently tasked a small team with building it.
Prediction markets have become big business lately where users bet on all sorts of events and outcomes. Meta now wants to tap that momentum to lift engagement across its products.
The experimental app is internally called Arena. It would run independently from Meta’s other apps. The company would then grow it by leveraging its massive audience reach. Users reportedly would not wager money at first. Instead, the app would likely use a video game-style points system.
However, Meta has not ruled out real-money betting eventually. That long-term option points to a possible new revenue stream. The points approach also frames Arena more as an engagement play than a gambling product. Winning points could unlock value across Meta’s apps.
The strategy mirrors how Meta built Threads. That Twitter alternative now counts 500 million users. Meta likely sees a similar framework for scaling Arena fast. More engagement also fuels more advertising opportunities.
According to New York Times:
“Mr. Zuckerberg, the chief executive of Meta, recently dispatched a small team at his company to create a smartphone app similar to Polymarket and Kalshi, two employees with knowledge of the matter said. Users would not wager money, and the app would probably rely on a video game-like points system instead, one person said, though the company had not ruled out the eventual use of real money betting.”
The move carries real risk, though. Prediction markets have become a source of regulatory contention. US regulators are exploring new rules to combat manipulation. The concern follows cases where large payouts looked tied to insider information.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is preparing tighter regulations. Operators argue their products are event derivatives, not gambling. President Donald Trump recently affirmed the sector should stay under the CFTC.
Wading into this space looks bold given the scrutiny. But Zuckerberg’s improving relationship with Trump may help. That goodwill could shield Meta from extra federal pressure. For now, Arena remains an early experiment with an uncertain path to launch.
