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Oil prices surgeed sharply on Friday, climbing over 9% to reach their highest levels in nearly five months after Israel launched strikes against Iran, dramatically heightening geopolitical tensions and fueling fears of disrupted crude supply from the Middle East.
Brent crude futures soared by $6.29, or 9.07%, to settle at $75.65 a barrel by 0315 GMT, after reaching an intraday peak of $78.50—the highest since January 27. Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude jumped $6.43, or 9.45%, to $74.47 a barrel, after peaking at $77.62, its strongest since January 21.
Friday’s rally marked the largest intraday gains for both benchmarks since 2022, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine triggered a dramatic surge in energy markets.
According to Israeli authorities, the airstrikes targeted Iran’s nuclear facilities, missile manufacturing sites, and key military commanders. Officials warned that the attacks could mark the beginning of a long-term campaign aimed at stopping Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.
Analysts at ING, led by Warren Patterson, noted that this escalation significantly increases geopolitical uncertainty, requiring the oil market to factor in a higher risk premium for potential supply disruptions.
Middle Eastern Oil Exports Depend on Iran’s Response
Oil traders based in Singapore said the real impact on Middle Eastern oil exports would depend on Iran’s response and the extent of U.S. involvement in the conflict.
“The market is nervous about the possibility of Iran retaliating by attempting to block the Strait of Hormuz,” one trader said, referring to the critical waterway that channels around 20 million barrels of oil daily.
Saul Kavonic, senior energy analyst at MST Marquee, stated that while oil prices surge in reaction to current events, actual supply disruption would require Iran to directly attack regional infrastructure or close the Strait. In an extreme scenario, this could impact up to 20 million barrels per day.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei vowed “harsh punishment” for Israel, claiming the attack killed several high-ranking commanders. Meanwhile, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio clarified that Israel acted unilaterally and urged Iran not to threaten American assets in the region.
Analyst Priyanka Sachdeva of Phillip Nova warned that Iran’s declaration of emergency and threat of retaliation could spark broader regional instability, potentially affecting neighboring oil-producing countries.
Although U.S. President Donald Trump has expressed hesitancy to intervene, experts believe any American involvement could further intensify supply concerns.
Elsewhere, global financial markets reacted strongly; stocks plunged in early Asian trading, U.S. futures declined, and investors flocked to safe havens such as gold and the Swiss franc.
