Whether AI is already replacing jobs remains fiercely debated. Tech layoffs hit their highest single-month total in years in May. AI was the most-cited reason, according to outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. Yet new hiring data complicates that narrative.
Software engineering, in theory, is the field most exposed to automation. Powerful AI coding tools keep spreading fast. But researchers at venture firm SignalFire say the hiring data tells a different story.
SignalFire tracked millions of employees across more than 80 million companies. It focused on hiring rather than layoffs, which are harder to track. People often delay updating their job status after cuts. By that measure, engineering was tech’s most resilient role in 2025.
Overall hiring at large tech firms sits 25% below 2019 levels. Engineering roles fell just 11%, a far smaller drop. Engineers made up 55% of new hires across SignalFire’s 12 Tech Majors. That group includes Alphabet, Meta, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and NVIDIA. In 2019, engineers were only 46% of new hires.
Early-stage startups hired 7% more engineers than before the pandemic. Research head Asher Bantock said the trend defies the replacement theory. If AI were substituting for engineers, those jobs would fall first.
The expert voices align on productivity, not redundancy. NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang rejected the idea that AI kills engineering jobs. He said engineers at NVIDIA are now busier than ever. Agents write code instantly, pushing engineers toward the next idea.
The picture is not all reassuring, though. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei warned last year that AI could wipe out half of entry-level white-collar jobs. Yet the company’s own head of economics, Peter McCrory, said in March he had seen no significant workforce effects yet. For now, engineering looks like a case of the Jevons paradox, where efficiency expands work rather than shrinking it.
