Bitcoin Could Drop to $92K as Demand Weakens: CryptoQuant

Bitcoin’s recent momentum appears to be fading as several key market indicators point to declining demand, raising concerns over a possible deeper correction.

According to Julio Moreno, CryptoQuant’s head of research, the pace of Bitcoin accumulation has significantly declined in recent weeks.

In a June 19 analysis, he revealed that “apparent demand growth has dropped to 118,000 BTC over the past 30 days”, a sharp decrease compared to the 228,000 BTC added during late May.

Adding to the bearish tone, Moreno noted that both “whales and U.S.-listed exchange-traded funds have cut their Bitcoin purchases by over 50%”. At the same time, short-term holders have shed 800,000 BTC since May 27, pointing to a drop in new investor engagement.

With Bitcoin struggling to stay above the $110,000 mark, futures data reflects a shift in sentiment. Traders have begun locking in profits and increasing short positions. CryptoQuant’s Traders’ Behavior Dominance metric indicates rising short interest as Bitcoin hovered around the $105,000 level.

While the market isn’t witnessing massive sell-offs, the problem lies in stagnant demand. Analyst Darkfost from CryptoQuant emphasized that although “realized profits are still small, less than $1 billion,” there’s a noticeable lack of the buying power needed to drive prices higher.

This has resulted in a balanced yet fragile market, one not marked by panic but also lacking the enthusiasm that typically signals the start of a new rally.

Key Technical Levels to Watch

As of the latest data, Bitcoin is trading at around $104,707, a 6.5% drop from its May 22 peak of $111,814, and largely flat for the day. The cryptocurrency has been moving between $103,645 and $108,771 over the past week.

On the technical front, Bitcoin sits just under the 20-day Bollinger Band midline at $105,854, with resistance around the $108,000 level. The Bollinger Bands are narrowing, suggesting lower volatility, while the relative strength index (RSI) stands at 47.75, indicating neutral momentum.

Bitcoin has been stuck in a downward channel since hitting its May high, and it has failed to reclaim the upper end of its consolidation range. If demand continues to falter, CryptoQuant warns that Bitcoin may test the $101,000 support, with the next significant support zone near “$92,000”, based on the platform’s Traders’ On-chain Realized Price.

A decisive break above $108,000 on high volume could signal a bullish shift, possibly retargeting the $111,814 high. However, a drop below $101,000 may open the door to a deeper pullback.