Pakistani Government is fearing dengue to get more life-threatening in the coming years. So for controlling the deadly disease, the government has decided to acquire the latest technology from Australia. It has also been agreed upon, that the preventive measures against Dengue will be initiated from as early as February of 2020. According to a local consensus, almost 53,805 dengue cases were reported into the country among which 95 patients died of the disease. 13,292 patients were admitted in Islamabad, 3,474 in Balochistan, 1,696 in Azad Jammu and Kashmir, 7,876 in KPK, 16,657 in Sindh, and 10,118 in Lahore.
Major General Dr. Aamer Ikram (Executive Director of National Institute of Health) said in an interview after considering the number of fatalities and cases of dengue in the whole year, the institute will focus on predictive modeling so that the outlook for next year could be predicted earlier.
Dr. Ikram said: “We had sent teams to the United Kingdom for training on predictive modeling and now we strongly believe that dengue can be controlled if all provincial governments take timely actions. Moreover, we have decided to send teams to Australia to get training on the latest technology to control dengue. By March 2020, we will sign a memorandum of understanding as Australia has also agreed for the transfer of technology”.
The real-time investigation of the disease will occur in the years to come according to Dr. Aamer. He further stated that 10 surveillance centers in districts were built all over the country. Not just that labs for detecting infectious diseases have also been started in Peshawar and Quetta. The government is further planning to build diagnostic labs in different cities of Pakistan like Gilgit, Karachi, Lahore, and Muzaffarabad, etc.
Predictive Modeling is a process that uses data mining and probability to forecast outcomes. Each model is made up of several predictors, which are variables that are likely to influence future results. Once data has been collected for relevant predictors, a statistical model is formulated. The model may employ a simple linear equation, or it may be a complex neural network, mapped out by sophisticated software. As additional data becomes available, the statistical analysis model is validated or revised.
Dengue is a viral disease that is spread by a special kind of mosquito. The amount of platelets decreases in the body of the patient as it progresses. The patients are then transfused with platelets so that the clotting ability of the blood doesn’t get compromised. If timely treatment isn’t provided to the patient, they might face deadly consequences.
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