3 min read
The era of uncontested dominance for OpenAI might be ending. A new report released yesterday by market intelligence firm Sensor Tower reveals a dramatic shift in the AI landscape. While ChatGPT remains the market leader, its explosive growth has officially hit a plateau. Meanwhile, Google’s Gemini and the rapid-rising DeepSeek are closing the gap, driven by new features and strategic integration.
AI Throne Wobbles: ChatGPT Hits a Wall
ChatGPT is still the app to beat, commanding a massive lead in total installs with 940 million all-time downloads through June 2025. However, the engine is sputtering.
Recent data shows ChatGPT’s global monthly active users grew by only 6% between August and November 2025. This stagnation correlates with a broader trend of saturation, while ChatGPT users are highly engaged, averaging 13 days of use per month, similar to social giants like X. New user acquisition is hitting a ceiling.
Gemini Counters with “Nano Banana”
Google has successfully weaponised its Android ecosystem to close the gap. Capitalising on ChatGPT’s slowdown, Gemini saw its monthly active users jump 30% from August to November.
This surge is largely attributed to the viral success of its “Nano Banana” image generation model released in September. But the groundwork was laid earlier in the year. Gemini has been aggressively targeting “AI image” search terms in app stores, consistently ranking #2 for these keywords throughout Q2 2025.
The result? Gemini users are sticking around. Daily time spent in the app has more than doubled since March, reaching 11 minutes per day in November.
The Silent Killer: DeepSeek
While the headlines focus on Google vs. OpenAI, a third player has upended the board. DeepSeek, which launched in January 2025, has shattered records.
In its first six months, DeepSeek garnered more global downloads than any other Generative AI app, surpassing even ChatGPT’s launch trajectory. Driven by massive adoption in Asia, the Middle East, and Africa, DeepSeek has firmly established itself as a “Big Three” competitor, boasting 127 million downloads by mid-year.
The Ad War Begins
OpenAI is keenly aware of these threats. After years of relying on organic growth, the company hit the panic button in 2025.
Data reveals that OpenAI had minimal digital ad spend prior to February 2025. Since then, they have aggressively ramped up spending to defend their territory, issuing an internal “code red” to refocus on personalisation and retention. This shift is visible in their marketing strategy, which now heavily targets students and uses Instagram to promote free access to ChatGPT Plus features.
Market Snapshot: The New Hierarchy
The AI app market is no longer a monopoly. Rather, it is a three-way dogfight.
| Metric | ChatGPT | Google Gemini | DeepSeek |
| All-Time Downloads (June ’25) |
940 Million |
200 Million |
127 Million |
| Recent Growth (Aug-Nov ’25) | Stagnant (+6%) | Surging (+30%) | Explosive Launch |
| Key Strength |
Retention (13 days/mo) |
Android Integration & “Nano Banana” |
Emerging Markets |
| Top Use Case |
Writing & Education |
Image Generation | Cost-Effective AI |
What’s Next for Generative AI?
The initial “land grab” phase of Generative AI has concluded, with apps accumulating 1.7 billion downloads in the first half of 2025 alone. The next phase is about utility and daily habits.
With ChatGPT users now treating the app like a search engine, averaging 7.8 sessions per day, the winner of 2026 will be the AI that can transition from a novelty chatbot to an indispensable daily OS. Right now, momentum is on Google’s side.
