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Pakistan’s refining industry witnessed a strong recovery in September 2025, led by a 32.1% year-on-year increase in high-speed diesel (HSD) offtake, driven by higher agricultural activity, rising transport demand, and reduced Iranian diesel inflows.
After months of sluggish performance, the refining sector is showing signs of improvement, reflecting revived fuel consumption and economic movement. Industry throughput surged 21.6% YoY, excluding furnace oil, highlighting a rebound in domestic demand and industrial operations.
Refinery Performance and Market Dynamics
| Indicator | YoY Change | Key Notes |
| Refining Throughput | +21.6% | Recovery led by diesel and MS sales |
| Diesel (HSD) Sales | +38.7% | Boosted by agri & transport sectors |
| Motor Spirit (MS) Sales | +19.4% | Growing private mobility demand |
| Furnace Oil (FO) Demand | -57.3% | Declined due to high levies & costs |
| Overall Refinery Utilization | 50.7% | Up from 43.5% in August |
PARCO led the industry with 55% of total output, maintaining high utilization peaking at 98% in September. Meanwhile, NRL posted an 11.3% rise in sales, supported by a 30.6% increase in diesel and 75% surge in MS sales, reflecting a shift toward high-margin products.
“The sector’s growth reflects rising domestic fuel demand and better operational efficiency,” said an industry analyst. “However, furnace oil remains under severe pressure due to uncompetitive generation costs.”
In contrast, Attock Refinery Limited (ATRL) saw a 26.4% YoY decline in total sales to 97,000 tonnes, due to operational limitations, while PRL and Cnergyico recorded volume drops of 10.2% and 35.3%, respectively.
Key Industry Insights
- Total refinery production hit 866,000 tonnes, a 1% YoY rise.
- Diesel output climbed 7.1%, while motor spirit and furnace oil declined by 3.3% and 8.1%.
- Government petroleum levies increased the cost of FO-based power to Rs54/kWh, reducing its viability.
Industry experts believe this recovery could continue through Q4 2025 if agriculture, trade, and transport demand remain robust and policy support sustains refinery margins.
