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Polymarket trading data paints a surprising picture of the AI landscape: xAI’s Grok has surged from a 3 percent to a 20 percent probability of claiming the title “best AI model by the end of 2025,” driven by rapid user adoption and unique feature integrations.
Google AI still leads with a 44 percent market share in the “best AI model” event, but its dominance is being challenged not only by ChatGPT’s 25 percent but also by Grok’s meteoric rise.
In May, Grok accounted for 16 percent of the event’s trading volume, underscoring trader confidence in its growth trajectory. Meanwhile, the overall Polymarket AI showdown has amassed over $200,000 in volume, highlighting the high stakes and broad participation in predictive bets on AI supremacy.
Polymarket’s “best AI model by year-end 2025” market currently stands at: Google AI 44 %, OpenAI’s ChatGPT 25 %, xAI’s Grok 20 %, Anthropic 6 %, and DeepSeek the remainder.
Google maintains a strong lead but its share has dipped slightly as traders ramp up positions on challengers. Grok’s 20 percent probability marks a dramatic tenfold increase over the past year, reflecting growing faith in xAI’s strategy.
Grok’s feature set includes real‑time web search, on‑demand image generation, and integrated trend analysis, which has resonated with users and traders alike, positioning it as a utility‑driven contender. Coupled with Elon Musk’s vocal support and xAI’s aggressive open‑model stance, Grok’s credibility has soared, translating into strong betting patterns on Polymarket as shared on X (formerly Twitter).
Despite headwinds, Google continues to pour resources into its Gemini AI suite and enterprise services, aiming to reinforce its market lead.
