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BTC to PKR volatility remains high as analysts warn that Bitcoin’s recent rebound may not signal the end of the bear market. Despite BTC rising nearly 3% on Sunday and recovering to around $71,000, several traders believe the market has not yet seen true capitulation, with some predicting a potential bottom near the $50,000 level.
Bitcoin’s bounce followed sharp losses that dragged prices to 15-month lows earlier in the week. While the recovery pushed BTC nearly 20% above Friday’s lows, market sentiment remains cautious as the weekly close approached.
Independent analyst Filbfilb compared the current BTC structure to the 2022 bear market and warned bulls not to get comfortable.
“I’m not going to try to dress it up any way other than how it looks,”
Filbfilb, referencing BTC trading well below the 50-week EMA near $95,300.
Trader BitBull echoed similar concerns, stating that Bitcoin’s final capitulation may still be ahead.
“$BTC final capitulation hasn’t happened yet. A real bottom will form below $50,000 where most ETF buyers will be underwater.”
According to Checkonchain data, the average cost basis of US spot Bitcoin ETFs stands near $82,000, meaning a large portion of institutional buyers would face losses if BTC drops further an important factor for both global markets and BTC to PKR pricing trends.
Analysts are also focusing on long-term moving averages. Bitcoin recently retested the 200-week moving average cloud, a zone between $58,000 and $68,000 that previously failed to hold during the 2022 downturn.
Cubic Analytics founder Caleb Franzen noted that the current price behavior closely resembles early warning signs from May 2022, when BTC briefly rebounded before breaking lower weeks later.
Still, Franzen cautioned against assuming history will repeat exactly.
“The reality is that no one knows what happens next.”
While Bitcoin’s short-term recovery has offered some relief, analysts remain divided on whether the worst is over. With ETF cost levels, macro trends, and historical patterns in focus, traders continue to brace for more volatility keeping BTC to PKR firmly in watch mode over the coming weeks.
