Bitcoin analysts are warning that the market may enter a prolonged consolidation phase, with BTC to PKR and BTC/USD prices stuck between key on-chain cost-basis levels. Fresh data from Glassnode shows that Bitcoin, currently trading near $65,767, remains trapped within a tight range, and unless major resistance levels are reclaimed, the market could continue moving sideways for weeks.
According to Glassnode’s latest “The Week On-chain” report, Bitcoin is trading between the True Market Mean at $79,200 and the Realized Price around $55,000. Analysts noted that this setup closely mirrors the first half of 2022, when BTC moved within a similar corridor before eventually entering a deeper bear market.
Glassnode stated, “In the absence of extreme catalysts, a prolonged phase of range-bound absorption remains the most probable path for the mid-term market.” The firm added that only a decisive reclaim of $79,200 would signal renewed strength, while a drop below $55,000 could trigger a sharper downside move similar to past systemic events like LUNA or FTX.
For Pakistani investors closely watching BTC to PKR, this sideways movement means volatility may remain limited unless Bitcoin breaks above $72,000 resistance or falls below major support levels.
On-chain metrics such as the UTXO Realized Price Distribution reveal dense supply clusters between $82,000–$97,000 and $100,000–$117,000. These levels represent holders currently sitting on unrealized losses. Glassnode warned that these zones could act as strong sell pressure if price revisits them.
The report explained that “overhead supply remains structurally heavy,” suggesting that even short-term rallies may face selling pressure from long-term holders trying to exit at breakeven.
Market data also shows that Bitcoin whales are adjusting their strategies. Alphractal CEO Joao Wedson noted that whales are closing long positions and opening shorts relative to retail traders, increasing the probability of consolidation over the next 30 days.
Technically, Bitcoin recently bounced nearly 20% from lows below $60,000 but failed to break above $72,000. It is now consolidating between $65,000 support and $68,000 resistance. Liquidation heatmaps show heavy sell orders between $69,000 and $72,000, while strong bids are placed below $66,000, keeping price action compressed.
Analysts say a clear breakout above $72,000 is necessary to target the 20-day EMA near $76,000 and the 50-day SMA above $85,000. Until then, range-bound movement remains the base case scenario.
For local traders tracking BTC to PKR, the global consolidation directly impacts rupee pricing. If Bitcoin continues moving sideways internationally, BTC to PKR may also remain stable unless the Pakistani rupee experiences independent volatility. A confirmed breakout above $72,000 could reignite bullish momentum, while failure to hold $65,000 may push the market back toward $60,000 support.
Market participants are advised to remain cautious as consolidation phases often precede significant volatility expansions.
