Morgan Stanley set a $300 price target on SpaceX Tuesday, the highest among major Wall Street banks. The target implies 87% upside from Monday’s close near $160. The initiation coincided with SpaceX joining the Nasdaq-100 index, less than a month after its IPO.
Lead analyst Adam Jonas rated the stock Overweight. In a note titled “AI’s Final Frontier,” he framed SpaceX as an artificial intelligence infrastructure company rather than a rocket business. Jonas argued the firm holds a unique position spanning launch services, satellite connectivity, and AI data centers.
The bullish thesis rests on aggressive growth assumptions. Morgan Stanley projects revenue climbing from $45 billion in 2026 to $319 billion by 2030. By 2040, the bank expects revenue to reach $3.3 trillion. Operating margins would approach 59% over that period.
Starship anchors the launch business. Jonas expects the rocket operational by the fourth quarter of 2026. He projects launch costs falling to $500 per kilogram by 2030, then below $150 by 2040. Annual launches would scale from 46 in 2027 to more than 6,000 by 2040.
The data center segment drives much of the upside. Morgan Stanley estimates SpaceX’s cost per watt at half the industry average. Deployment runs six to eight times faster than competitors, according to the bank. Recent cloud agreements with Google and Anthropic signal new revenue streams.
However, the model carries significant risk. Capital expenditures could reach $300 billion annually by 2031. SpaceX would need roughly $84 billion in external financing each year from 2027 through 2034. If debt markets cannot absorb that demand, the company may issue equity or slow deployment.
Other risks include dependence on founder Elon Musk, unproven technologies, and regulatory exposure. The target also assumes SpaceX creates entirely new markets that do not exist today.
Wall Street remains divided. Goldman Sachs initiated coverage at $205, while Wells Fargo set a $230 target. The analyst consensus average stands at $220.81, well below Morgan Stanley’s bullish call.
