Is the smart lockdown strategy effectively working for the second wave of COVID-19?

Pakistan received one of the worst outbreaks of COVID-19 shortly after Eid-ul-Fitr with complete lockdowns being imposed all over the country even before Eid to stop the virus from spreading. There were more than a hundred deaths each day recorded during June 2020.

The nation somehow almost beat the virus, with even the WHO praising Pakistan’s efforts, as there were less than 1000 cases each day after August 2020 that is until the start of November. With the government repeatedly telling the citizens to ensure that they follow SOPs, there has still been a rise in the Corona cases since then.

The government has been using a smart lockdown policy in which they seal the area where a Corona positive case has been recorded to stop the transmission cycle and identify the people who were in contact with the said person and ensure that they quarantine properly.

Following sectors will be sealed in the next 24 hours for emerging as covid hot spots.
G-6/2
G-9/1
G-10/4
I-8/3
I-8/4
Residents are requested to plz cooperate. Schools, Mosques, Shopping centers, parks etc will be closed. AC of the area will ensure arrangements

— Deputy Commissioner Islamabad (@dcislamabad) November 8, 2020

So how effective has this policy turned out to be? Are smart lockdowns really stopping the transmission of COVID-19? Well, let’s look at an overview of the facts first.

The graph below shows that the number of confirmed cases is approximately rising at the same rate as they were at the start of the spread of COVID-19 in April.

The cases rose from 425 confirmed cases on April 20 to 1,297 confirmed cases on May 2. If you look at the cases now, there were 707 confirmed cases on 25^th October and now there are 1,650 cases as of 8^th November.

You might say that the confirmed cases at the start were lower due to the low number of tests being performed but the fact is that the confirmed cases are still rising at the same rate which is a bad sign. In the end, it seems smart lockdowns are being rendered ineffective since the people are not following the SOPs properly.

Of course, this is just a brief overview of the spread using basic information however the second wave may be as big as the first one. So the smart lockdowns will only be effective if the people collaborate with the government in properly following the SOPs especially in areas like schools, universities, malls, and wedding halls.

Image Source: GOP, Unicef