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Pakistan’s electricity generation increased by 0.8% year-on-year in September 2025, reaching 12,592 GWh, compared to 12,487 GWh in the same month last year, according to the latest data from Arif Habib Limited (AHL). The slight rise reflects improved efficiency and reduced fuel costs, although total output dropped month-on-month due to seasonal demand declines.
During the first quarter of FY26, total generation rose 1% to 40,933 GWh, driven by lower tariffs, a shift of captive power users to the national grid, and a low base effect from last year’s weaker figures.
“Falling fuel prices and reduced reliance on furnace oil have eased overall generation costs, resulting in a negative fuel cost adjustment (FCA) of Rs0.37 per kWh requested by DISCOs,” said the AHL report.
The average fuel cost for September stood at Rs7.29 per kWh, below Nepra’s reference rate of Rs7.66, with Brent crude averaging $68 per barrel lower than the $73 estimate.
| Power Source | Generation (GWh) | Change (YoY) | Remarks |
| Hydel | 4,823 | ▼ 1.1% | Slight seasonal decline |
| RLNG | 1,815 | ▼ 11% | Still 12.9% above Nepra’s target |
| Imported Coal | 1,019 | ▼ 11.3% | 72% above reference due to cheaper imports |
| Total Generation | 12,592 | ▲ 0.8% | 5.3% below reference level (13,300 GWh) |
The cost of imported coal-based generation dropped 17.2% YoY to Rs13.74 per kWh, narrowing its cost gap with Thar coal to Rs0.74 per kWh, compared to a Rs4 historical difference.
While hydel and RLNG output dipped, the overall energy mix benefitted from cheaper fuel imports and lower oil prices. Nepra projects electricity demand to rise by 2.8% in FY26, though dependence on costlier fuels may trigger positive FCA adjustments in coming months as demand picks up.
